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U.S. Fixed-Wing Modernization Plans: Near Term Choices
Slides (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak and Barry Watts

Presentation slides from congressional briefing

09/19/2007
air force, annual defense budget, critical technologies, select weapons systems, service budgets, systems/force structure


The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program: A New Dawn for Naval Aviation?
Slides (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work and Thomas Ehrhard

Presentation Slides from Congressional Briefing co-sponsored by Senator Dorgan

07/11/2007
air force, annual defense budget, congressional action, critical technologies, navy, select weapons systems, service budgets, systems/force structure


U.S. Fighter Modernization Plans: Near-Term Choices
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak and Barry Watts

Under current plans, the US military will spend over $300 billion on fighter modernization over the next several decades, primarily for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. This is far more than is projected to be spent on any other major acquisition program. Barry Watts and Steven Kosiak, the authors of the report discuss military requirements for US airpower and the affordability of existing plans.

06/20/2007
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, select weapons systems, service budgets, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure


The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program
Backgrounder (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Thomas Ehrhard and Robert Work

Aircraft carriers are one of America’s key power-projection systems. To ensure their continued operational effectiveness and survivability in the future security environment, they need to be equipped with new air platforms with greater range (independent reach), greater persistence (ability to loiter over the target area), and improved stealth (ability to survive in contested airspace).

05/10/2007
air force, critical technologies, select weapons systems, systems/force structure


A New Global Defense Posture for the Second Transoceanic Era
Slides (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work

Slides from Future Defense PLanning Needs seminar for Senior Congressional Staff

04/13/2007
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, revolution in military affairs, systems/force structure, transformation strategy


Six Decades of Guided Munitions and Battle Networks: Progress and Prospects
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

The research and analysis underlying this report began in 2003 and aimed at answering the following question. How has the maturation of non-nuclear guided munitions during the late 1980s and early 1990s affected the conduct of warfare by advanced militaries, especially by the various combat arms of the US armed forces?

03/01/2007
critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, revolution in military affairs, select weapons systems, systems/force structure


Stealthy Mobility & Support Aircraft for US Special Operations Forces
Slides (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Martinage

Presentation slides from the CSIS Future of SOF Aviation Project

02/22/2007
air force, critical technologies, military operations, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure


Evolving Military Affairs
Op/Ed (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

Significant change in the security environment is under way. However, the Pentagon is yet to catch up with these changes in the way wars are conducted.

05/22/2006
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, qdr, revolution in military affairs, transformation strategy


The Quadrennial Defense Review: Rethinking the US Military Posture
Testimony (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew F. Krepinevich

Executive Director, Andrew Krepinevich, testifies before the House Armed Services Committee on March 14th, 2006.

03/14/2006
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, qdr 2005, qdr, revolution in military affairs, transformation strategy


The QDR and Long Range Surveillance and Strike
Backgrounder (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Michael Vickers

Slides from the congressional briefing on the QDR and long range surveillance and strike.

11/10/2005
air force, competitive/grand strategies, congressional action, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, nuclear forces, qdr, qdr 2005, select weapons systems, systems/force structure


Long-Range Strike: Imperatives, Urgency and Options
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

Long-range precision strike (LRPS) is a core strategic capability of the United States in the post-Cold War era, and the US Air Force. Is the Defense Department doing enough to sustain sufficient US capability and dominance in long-range strike? What should be done in the short, medium and long term to capitalize on long-range strike?

04/06/2005
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, nuclear forces, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure, transformation strategy


The Cruise Missile Challenge
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Thomas Mahnken

An analysis of trends in personnel costs and the implications for the DOD plans and programs.

03/10/2005
air force, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, nuclear forces, proliferation, qdr 2001, select weapons systems, systems/force structure


The Revolution in War
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Michael Vickers & Robert Martinage

Michael Vickers and Robert Martinage offer an insight of a decade-long assessment on the changing nature of conflict and the Revolution in Military Affairs.

12/01/2004
alliances, competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, military operations, revolution in military affairs, transformation strategy


Moving Forward On Long-Range Strike
Backgrounder (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

This backgrounder analyzes the US Air Forces ability to deliver long-range strike, now and in the long term.

09/27/2004
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, nuclear forces, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure, transformation strategy


Matching Resources With Requirements: Options for Modernizing the US Air Force
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak

Can the Air Force afford its modernization plan? Steven Kosiak finds it unlikely and provides four alternate models for maintaining air superiority.

08/01/2004
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, revolution in military affairs, select weapons systems, service budgets, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure, transformation strategy


Transforming the Legions: The Army and the Future of Land Warfare
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

A report examining the future geopolitical environment and its effects on the Army's transformation plan.

01/14/2004
Iraq, war, terrorism, combat, insurgency, conflict, precision, air power, stability


Operation Iraqi Freedom: A First Blush Assessment
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

An initial analysis of Operation Iraqi Freedom and it's possible implications for future military strategy and force structure.

09/16/2003
Iraq, war, terrorism, combat, insurgency, conflict, precision, air power, stability


The Anti-Access Threat and Theater Air Bases
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Christopher Bowie

This paper focuses on the potential vulnerability of theater bases for land-based aircraft.

08/23/2002
air bases, anti-acces, anti-access threats


CSBA Releases Report on Anti-Access and Theater Bases
Press Release By Alise Frye

CSBA released today a report with important implications for fighting future wars overseas.

09/24/2002
Bowie, air bases, anti-access threats


Proposed Tanker Leasing Arrangement Unlikely to Be Most Cost-Effective Option for Air Force
Backgrounder By Steven Kosiak

This Backgrounder provides a brief of the Air Fore tanker issues, and particularly, the proposed taner leasing arrangement.

06/14/2002
Air Force, Boeing, leasing, tanker aircraft


Future Warfare 20XX Lessons Learned Final Report
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Michael Vickers and Robert Martinage

A final report on Future Warfare 20XX Wargame Series

12/01/2001
competitive/grand strategies, scenarios, transformation strategy, revolution in military affairs


Emerging Capabilities May Permit Fundamental Change in US Strategic Force Posture
Press Release By Stacey Shepard

In releasing their latest report today on The Transformation of Strategic-Strike Operations, Andrew Krepinevich and Robert Martinage present a thought-provoiking framework for considering how America's strategic forces might be reshaped to meet tomorrow's

03/21/2001
strategic strike, nuclear weapons, PGM, precision guided munitions, transformation


The Transformation of Strategic-Strike Operations
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich and Robert Martinage

A strong case can be made that the United States should take steps to create a new strategic-strike triad, relying on its precision- and electronic-strike capabilities to form two of the three legs, with a smaller residual nuclear force comprising the third leg.

03/00/2001
strategic strike, strategic strike operations, nuclear weapons, PGMs, precision-guided munitions, bombs, strategic strike triad


Bolster the B-2 Fleet Now: Future Challenges Demand Penetrating Bomber
Op/Ed By Michael Vickers

A critical review of bomber force plans, and defense strategy more broadly, should be an urgent priority for the next administration.

10/23/2000
B-2, bombers, Air Force, bomber force plans


Options for US Fighter Modernization
Report By Steven Kosiak

The main purpose of this report is to describe a range of alternative approaches to fighter modernization that might be pursued if the current plan is deemed either unnecessary or simply unaffordable.

09/00/1999
fighter modernization, defense modernization, F-22, JSF, Joint Strike Fighter, F/A-18E/F


Total Cost Of Allied Force Air Campaign: Preliminary Estimate
Update By Steven Kosiak

CSBA estimates that the US portion of the NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia cost some $1.8 billion to $3.0 billion

06/10/1999
Kosovo, cost estimate, Allied Force air campaign, Allied Force, Kosovo air campaign costs


RMA and the Future of Land Forces: Era of Tank Primacy is Over
Press Release By Stacey Shepard

Press release on CSBA's predictions for the future of land forces

04/20/1999
RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs, land forces, Army, military transformation


The Future Of Tactical Aviation - A Strategic Perspective
Testimony By Andrew Krepinevich

Testimony of Andrew Krepinevich before the Senate Armed Services AirLand Subcommittee

03/10/1999
tactical aviation, JSF, Joint Strike Fighter, F-22, transformation


Emerging Threats, Revolutionary Capabilities And Military Transformation
Testimony By Andrew Krepinevich

Testimony of Andrew Krepinevich before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities

03/05/1999
emerging threats, RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs, HASC, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities


The Military Revolution And The Case For Deep Cuts In Nuclear Forces
Article-non CSBA pub By Andrew Krepinevich and Steven Kosiak

Article discussing how smarter bombs may allow a decrease in nuclear weapons

11/00/1998
Air Force, PGMs, precision guided munitions, nuclear weapons


Innovation: Element of Power
Report (PDF file - opens in new window)
By L. Murawiec, Translation: Elizabeth Heeter

Translation of L. Murawiec's article on Transformation and the RMA

07/00/1998
Murawiec, Innovation, Transfrmation, RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs


The Military Revolution And Intrastate Conflict
Report By Michael Vickers and Robert Martinage

A discussion of the impact the RMA will make on intrastate conflicts

10/00/1997
intrastate conflict, Revolution in Military Affairs, RMA


Transforming The American Military
Backgrounder By Andrew Krepinevich

A presentation given on September 1, 1997, at the dedication conference for the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at the Texas A&M University

09/26/1997
military, transformation, RMA, Revolution in military affairs


B-2 Opponents Miss Target - Mature Version Of Aircraft Lives Up To Billing
Op/Ed By Michael Vickers

Op-Ed discussing the B-2 bomber and the negative reporting about it in the media

09/22/1997
B-2, bombers, Air Force, stealth


US Tactical Aircraft Plans: Preparing For The Wrong Future?
Backgrounder By Steven Kosiak

The Services tactical aircraft modernization plans are almost certainly unaffordable given the amount of funding likely to be available for these efforts.

10/03/1996
tactical aircraft, aircraft modernization, F/A-18, F-22, JSF


Air Force of 2016
Report By Andrew Krepinevich

Report on ways the Air Force could transform itself in preparation for threats in and around 2016.

10/00/1996
transformation, Air Force, RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs


Air Force Plans For The 21st Century - A Budgetary Perspective
Report By Steven Kosiak

A look at different modernization and purchase plans for the Air Force

10/00/1996
Air Force, future air force, modernization, aircraft purchase plans


A New Navy For A New Era
Report By Andrew Krepinevich

Analysis of the way the Navy needs to transform to counter future threats

05/00/1996
Navy, RMA, revolution in military affairs, transformation


Perspectives On The Revolution In Military Affairs
Backgrounder By Andrew Krepinevich and Michael Vickers

Perspectives on the RMA range from denial that a revolution is currently underway, or even exists, to the view that we are entering a period of continuous revolutionary change in which discrete military regimes will no longer be discernible.

04/24/1996
RMA, revolution in military affairs, future warfare, revolutionary change


Air Force

The key to continuing US dominance and world prosperity in the 21st century will be our ability to exploit our unique, asymmetric military advantages.  The Air Force is the primary custodian of this nation’s most important asymmetric advantage—aerospace power.  The nation and our allies increasingly depend on the Air Force when it comes to aerospace power application.  Despite all the revolutionary developments fielded by your Air Force in the last decade alone—which range from the miracles of stealth and precision demonstrated in the Gulf War to unprecedented organizational transformations such as the disbanding of Strategic and Tactical Air Commands into the Air Combat Command in 1992 or the Expeditionary Aerospace Force concept in 1999—the accelerating demand for air and space forces puts a strain on our ability to expand our advantage.  The current budget guidance will only exacerbate that strain, further constricting the nation’s ability to exploit its asymmetric advantage—aerospace power.

There are three reasons why aerospace power constitutes the nation’s most critical strategic resource:  First, and primary among them, is its ability to shape the defense postures of our adversaries.  The Air Force must stay on the leading edge by fielding globally capable forces that shrink the adversaries’ strategic options.  For example, stealth in numbers has strategic meaning—adversaries must build extremely costly defensive systems that diminish their ability to field offensive systems that threaten our allies and friends in the region.

Second, land based air and space have increasing utility and cost effectiveness in the future security environment.  Stealth, precision, speed, global reach—those characteristics have experienced markedly increased utility in the post Cold War world.  Asking one service to bear the burden of developing this nation’s two most rapidly expanding capabilities—air and space—armed only with a traditional share of the budget is unsupportable in the long term.  Changing that paradigm takes leadership and will result in overall budgetary efficiencies--expanding and developing air and space forces intelligently will lead to more cost-effective joint force tradeoffs that will also result in greater security and prosperity. 

Third, national security transformation literally depends on expanding aerospace.  The nation requires balanced military forces, but the evolving security environment means that the balance must change.  New concepts of operations depend primarily on the expansion and greater exploitation of aerospace capabilities, whether that be increased space bandwidth requirements, or achieving persistent surveillance over areas of interest, or the ability to deny enemy sanctuaries in deep inland, mobile, or hardened sites.  The Air Force will continue to lead transformation, but we cannot fully realize the impact of those new ideas if they are not backed by funding commensurate with their importance to national security.

The Air Force story at the end of the 20th century was one of rapidly expanding capability within traditional budgetary means

In the 21st century, the ability of the nation to defend itself and to create a peaceful and prosperous world depends on the expansion of both air and space forces beyond legacy budgetary constructs.  In an austere budgetary environment, the best strategy is to invest in success and invest in the future—aerospace power.