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An Air Force Strategy for the Long Haul
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Tom Ehrhard

09/17/2009
air force, critical technologies, nuclear forces, personnel and readiness, select weapons systems, service budgets, service-focused analysis, SLH, systems/force structure

This monograph discusses the current state of the United States Air Force and how it can better align its institutional identity and force posture to the future security environment. It offers a fiscally-constrained menu of recommendations for how that realignment might be realized over the next twenty years, with a larger force posture in mind.


The F-22 Program in Retrospect
Backgrounder
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

09/08/2009
air force, critical technologies, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure

This backgrounder reviews the F-22 acquisition program, focusing on the cost increases and schedule slippages; considers lessons learned, and offers insights on the possible future directions for the program.


High Energy Laser and High Power Microwave
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Rodney Robertson

05/20/2009
air force, critical technologies, revolution in military affairs, scenarios, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

presentation slides from congressional conference


Solid-State Laser Weapon Systems: Bridging the Gap -- or Bridge Too Far?
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich, Tom Ehrhard, Barry Watts

05/20/2009
air force, critical technologies, revolution in military affairs, scenarios, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

presentation slides from congressional conference


Directed Energy Discussion
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By James Haig

05/20/2009
critical technologies, revolution in military affairs, scenarios, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

presentation slides from congressional conference


Near-Term Prospects for Battlefield Directed-Energy Weapons
Backgrounder
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Thomas Ehrhard, Andrew Krepinevich and Barry Watts

02/05/2008
air force, critical technologies, revolution in military affairs, scenarios, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

Technical challenges that have long delayed the fielding of directed-energy weapons for battlefield use finally appear to be giving way to technical and engineering progress. CSBA investigates whether SSL technology has matured sufficiently to be employed in tactical environments.


The Case for Long-Range Strike: 21st Century Scenarios
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

02/03/2009
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, nuclear forces, revolution in military affairs, scenarios, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure

The report examines the needs, specifications, rationales and urgency for land-based, penetrating, long-range strike system (LRSS) in light of the security environment confronting the United States in the early twenty-first century.


Think Tank Warns Against Deferring LRSS Programs
Press Release
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

02/03/2009
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, nuclear forces, revolution in military affairs, scenarios, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure

Announcement of the Release of New Report on Long-Range Strike


Range, Persistence, Stealth, and Networking: The Case for a Carrier-Based Unmanned Combat Air System
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Tom Ehrhard and Robert Work

06/18/2008
air force, critical technologies, defense appropriations, navy, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

The report argues that the strategic value of the improvements in range, persistence, stealth and networking offered by the N-UCAS (Naval Unmanned Combat Air System) are crucial in responding to increasingly long-range threats to the aircraft carrier.


U.S. Fixed-Wing Modernization Plans: Near Term Choices
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak and Barry Watts

09/19/2007
air force, annual defense budget, critical technologies, select weapons systems, service budgets, systems/force structure

Presentation slides from congressional briefing


The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program: A New Dawn for Naval Aviation?
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work and Tom Ehrhard

07/11/2007
air force, annual defense budget, congressional action, critical technologies, navy, select weapons systems, service budgets, systems/force structure

Presentation Slides from Congressional Briefing co-sponsored by Senator Dorgan


U.S. Fighter Modernization Plans: Near-Term Choices
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak and Barry Watts

06/20/2007
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, select weapons systems, service budgets, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure

Under current plans, the US military will spend over $300 billion on fighter modernization over the next several decades, primarily for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. This is far more than is projected to be spent on any other major acquisition program. Barry Watts and Steven Kosiak, the authors of the report discuss military requirements for US airpower and the affordability of existing plans.


The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program
Backgrounder
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Tom Ehrhard and Robert Work

05/10/2007
air force, critical technologies, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

Aircraft carriers are one of America’s key power-projection systems. To ensure their continued operational effectiveness and survivability in the future security environment, they need to be equipped with new air platforms with greater range (independent reach), greater persistence (ability to loiter over the target area), and improved stealth (ability to survive in contested airspace).


A New Global Defense Posture for the Second Transoceanic Era
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work

04/13/2007
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, revolution in military affairs, systems/force structure, transformation strategy

Slides from Future Defense PLanning Needs seminar for Senior Congressional Staff


Six Decades of Guided Munitions and Battle Networks: Progress and Prospects
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

03/01/2007
critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, revolution in military affairs, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

The research and analysis underlying this report began in 2003 and aimed at answering the following question. How has the maturation of non-nuclear guided munitions during the late 1980s and early 1990s affected the conduct of warfare by advanced militaries, especially by the various combat arms of the US armed forces?


Stealthy Mobility & Support Aircraft for US Special Operations Forces
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Martinage

02/22/2007
air force, critical technologies, military operations, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure

Presentation slides from the CSIS Future of SOF Aviation Project


Evolving Military Affairs
Op/Ed
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

05/22/2006
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, qdr, revolution in military affairs, transformation strategy

Significant change in the security environment is under way. However, the Pentagon is yet to catch up with these changes in the way wars are conducted.


The Quadrennial Defense Review: Rethinking the US Military Posture
Testimony
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew F. Krepinevich

03/14/2006
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, qdr 2005, qdr, revolution in military affairs, transformation strategy

Executive Director, Andrew Krepinevich, testifies before the House Armed Services Committee on March 14th, 2006.


The QDR and Long Range Surveillance and Strike
Backgrounder
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Michael Vickers

11/10/2005
air force, competitive/grand strategies, congressional action, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, nuclear forces, qdr, qdr 2005, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

Slides from the congressional briefing on the QDR and long range surveillance and strike.


Long-Range Strike: Imperatives, Urgency and Options
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

04/06/2005
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, nuclear forces, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure, transformation strategy

Long-range precision strike (LRPS) is a core strategic capability of the United States in the post-Cold War era, and the US Air Force. Is the Defense Department doing enough to sustain sufficient US capability and dominance in long-range strike? What should be done in the short, medium and long term to capitalize on long-range strike?


The Cruise Missile Challenge
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Thomas Mahnken

03/10/2005
air force, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, nuclear forces, proliferation, qdr 2001, select weapons systems, systems/force structure

An analysis of trends in personnel costs and the implications for the DOD plans and programs.


The Revolution in War
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Michael Vickers & Robert Martinage

12/01/2004
alliances, competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, military operations, revolution in military affairs, transformation strategy

Michael Vickers and Robert Martinage offer an insight of a decade-long assessment on the changing nature of conflict and the Revolution in Military Affairs.


Moving Forward On Long-Range Strike
Backgrounder
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

09/27/2004
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, nuclear forces, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure, transformation strategy

This backgrounder analyzes the US Air Forces ability to deliver long-range strike, now and in the long term.


Matching Resources With Requirements: Options for Modernizing the US Air Force
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak

08/01/2004
air force, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, dod strategy and policy, revolution in military affairs, select weapons systems, service budgets, service-focused analysis, systems/force structure, transformation strategy

Can the Air Force afford its modernization plan? Steven Kosiak finds it unlikely and provides four alternate models for maintaining air superiority.


Transforming the Legions: The Army and the Future of Land Warfare
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

01/14/2004
Iraq, war, terrorism, combat, insurgency, conflict, precision, air power, stability

A report examining the future geopolitical environment and its effects on the Army's transformation plan.


Operation Iraqi Freedom: A First Blush Assessment
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

09/16/2003
Iraq, war, terrorism, combat, insurgency, conflict, precision, air power, stability

An initial analysis of Operation Iraqi Freedom and it's possible implications for future military strategy and force structure.


The Anti-Access Threat and Theater Air Bases
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Christopher Bowie

08/23/2002
air bases, anti-acces, anti-access threats

This paper focuses on the potential vulnerability of theater bases for land-based aircraft.


CSBA Releases Report on Anti-Access and Theater Bases
Press Release
By Alise Frye

09/24/2002
Bowie, air bases, anti-access threats

CSBA released today a report with important implications for fighting future wars overseas.


Proposed Tanker Leasing Arrangement Unlikely to Be Most Cost-Effective Option for Air Force
Backgrounder
By Steven Kosiak

06/14/2002
Air Force, Boeing, leasing, tanker aircraft

This Backgrounder provides a brief of the Air Fore tanker issues, and particularly, the proposed taner leasing arrangement.


Future Warfare 20XX Lessons Learned Final Report
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Michael Vickers and Robert Martinage

12/01/2001
competitive/grand strategies, scenarios, transformation strategy, revolution in military affairs

A final report on Future Warfare 20XX Wargame Series


Emerging Capabilities May Permit Fundamental Change in US Strategic Force Posture
Press Release
By Stacey Shepard

03/21/2001
strategic strike, nuclear weapons, PGM, precision guided munitions, transformation

In releasing their latest report today on The Transformation of Strategic-Strike Operations, Andrew Krepinevich and Robert Martinage present a thought-provoiking framework for considering how America's strategic forces might be reshaped to meet tomorrow's


The Transformation of Strategic-Strike Operations
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich and Robert Martinage

03/00/2001
strategic strike, strategic strike operations, nuclear weapons, PGMs, precision-guided munitions, bombs, strategic strike triad

A strong case can be made that the United States should take steps to create a new strategic-strike triad, relying on its precision- and electronic-strike capabilities to form two of the three legs, with a smaller residual nuclear force comprising the third leg.


Bolster the B-2 Fleet Now: Future Challenges Demand Penetrating Bomber
Op/Ed
By Michael Vickers

10/23/2000
B-2, bombers, Air Force, bomber force plans

A critical review of bomber force plans, and defense strategy more broadly, should be an urgent priority for the next administration.


Options for US Fighter Modernization
Report
By Steven Kosiak

09/00/1999
fighter modernization, defense modernization, F-22, JSF, Joint Strike Fighter, F/A-18E/F

The main purpose of this report is to describe a range of alternative approaches to fighter modernization that might be pursued if the current plan is deemed either unnecessary or simply unaffordable.


Total Cost Of Allied Force Air Campaign: Preliminary Estimate
Update
By Steven Kosiak

06/10/1999
Kosovo, cost estimate, Allied Force air campaign, Allied Force, Kosovo air campaign costs

CSBA estimates that the US portion of the NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia cost some $1.8 billion to $3.0 billion


RMA and the Future of Land Forces: Era of Tank Primacy is Over
Press Release
By Stacey Shepard

04/20/1999
RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs, land forces, Army, military transformation

Press release on CSBA's predictions for the future of land forces


The Future Of Tactical Aviation - A Strategic Perspective
Testimony
By Andrew Krepinevich

03/10/1999
tactical aviation, JSF, Joint Strike Fighter, F-22, transformation

Testimony of Andrew Krepinevich before the Senate Armed Services AirLand Subcommittee


Emerging Threats, Revolutionary Capabilities And Military Transformation
Testimony
By Andrew Krepinevich

03/05/1999
emerging threats, RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs, HASC, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities

Testimony of Andrew Krepinevich before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities


The Military Revolution And The Case For Deep Cuts In Nuclear Forces
Article-non CSBA pub
By Andrew Krepinevich and Steven Kosiak

11/00/1998
Air Force, PGMs, precision guided munitions, nuclear weapons

Article discussing how smarter bombs may allow a decrease in nuclear weapons


Innovation: Element of Power
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By L. Murawiec, Translation: Elizabeth Heeter

07/00/1998
Murawiec, Innovation, Transfrmation, RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs

Translation of L. Murawiec's article on Transformation and the RMA


The Military Revolution And Intrastate Conflict
Report
By Michael Vickers and Robert Martinage

10/00/1997
intrastate conflict, Revolution in Military Affairs, RMA

A discussion of the impact the RMA will make on intrastate conflicts


Transforming The American Military
Backgrounder
By Andrew Krepinevich

09/26/1997
military, transformation, RMA, Revolution in military affairs

A presentation given on September 1, 1997, at the dedication conference for the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at the Texas A&M University


B-2 Opponents Miss Target - Mature Version Of Aircraft Lives Up To Billing
Op/Ed
By Michael Vickers

09/22/1997
B-2, bombers, Air Force, stealth

Op-Ed discussing the B-2 bomber and the negative reporting about it in the media


US Tactical Aircraft Plans: Preparing For The Wrong Future?
Backgrounder
By Steven Kosiak

10/03/1996
tactical aircraft, aircraft modernization, F/A-18, F-22, JSF

The Services tactical aircraft modernization plans are almost certainly unaffordable given the amount of funding likely to be available for these efforts.


Air Force Plans For The 21st Century - A Budgetary Perspective
Report
By Steven Kosiak

10/00/1996
Air Force, future air force, modernization, aircraft purchase plans

A look at different modernization and purchase plans for the Air Force


Air Force of 2016
Report
By Andrew Krepinevich

10/00/1996
transformation, Air Force, RMA, Revolution in Military Affairs

Report on ways the Air Force could transform itself in preparation for threats in and around 2016.


A New Navy For A New Era
Report
By Andrew Krepinevich

05/00/1996
Navy, RMA, revolution in military affairs, transformation

Analysis of the way the Navy needs to transform to counter future threats


Perspectives On The Revolution In Military Affairs
Backgrounder
By Andrew Krepinevich and Michael Vickers

04/24/1996
RMA, revolution in military affairs, future warfare, revolutionary change

Perspectives on the RMA range from denial that a revolution is currently underway, or even exists, to the view that we are entering a period of continuous revolutionary change in which discrete military regimes will no longer be discernible.


Air Force

The key to continuing US dominance and world prosperity in the 21st century will be our ability to exploit our unique, asymmetric military advantages.  The Air Force is the primary custodian of this nation’s most important asymmetric advantage—aerospace power.  The nation and our allies increasingly depend on the Air Force when it comes to aerospace power application.  Despite all the revolutionary developments fielded by your Air Force in the last decade alone—which range from the miracles of stealth and precision demonstrated in the Gulf War to unprecedented organizational transformations such as the disbanding of Strategic and Tactical Air Commands into the Air Combat Command in 1992 or the Expeditionary Aerospace Force concept in 1999—the accelerating demand for air and space forces puts a strain on our ability to expand our advantage.  The current budget guidance will only exacerbate that strain, further constricting the nation’s ability to exploit its asymmetric advantage—aerospace power.

There are three reasons why aerospace power constitutes the nation’s most critical strategic resource:  First, and primary among them, is its ability to shape the defense postures of our adversaries.  The Air Force must stay on the leading edge by fielding globally capable forces that shrink the adversaries’ strategic options.  For example, stealth in numbers has strategic meaning—adversaries must build extremely costly defensive systems that diminish their ability to field offensive systems that threaten our allies and friends in the region.

Second, land based air and space have increasing utility and cost effectiveness in the future security environment.  Stealth, precision, speed, global reach—those characteristics have experienced markedly increased utility in the post Cold War world.  Asking one service to bear the burden of developing this nation’s two most rapidly expanding capabilities—air and space—armed only with a traditional share of the budget is unsupportable in the long term.  Changing that paradigm takes leadership and will result in overall budgetary efficiencies--expanding and developing air and space forces intelligently will lead to more cost-effective joint force tradeoffs that will also result in greater security and prosperity. 

Third, national security transformation literally depends on expanding aerospace.  The nation requires balanced military forces, but the evolving security environment means that the balance must change.  New concepts of operations depend primarily on the expansion and greater exploitation of aerospace capabilities, whether that be increased space bandwidth requirements, or achieving persistent surveillance over areas of interest, or the ability to deny enemy sanctuaries in deep inland, mobile, or hardened sites.  The Air Force will continue to lead transformation, but we cannot fully realize the impact of those new ideas if they are not backed by funding commensurate with their importance to national security.

The Air Force story at the end of the 20th century was one of rapidly expanding capability within traditional budgetary means

In the 21st century, the ability of the nation to defend itself and to create a peaceful and prosperous world depends on the expansion of both air and space forces beyond legacy budgetary constructs.  In an austere budgetary environment, the best strategy is to invest in success and invest in the future—aerospace power.