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The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review: An Initial Assessment
Backgrounder
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Mark Gunzinger and Jim Thomas

02/01/2010
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, qdr, qdr 2009, scenarios, SLH

This CSBA Backgrounder provides an initial assessment of the QDR’s strategy and force planning dimensions.


Defense Planning for the Long Haul: Scenarios, Operational Concepts, and the Future Security Environment
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Evan Braden Montgomery

01/11/2010
dod strategy and policy, national defense components, qdr 2009, scenarios, SLH

This report translates the principal strategic challenges the United States is likely to confront into a set of plausible scenarios.


Release of Defense Planning for the Long Haul Report
Press Release
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Natalya Anfilofyeva

01/11/2010
dod strategy and policy, national defense components, qdr 2009, scenarios, SLH

CSBA’s newest release, Defense Planning for the Long Haul: Scenarios, Operational Concepts, and the Future Security Environment, translates the principal strategic challenges the United States is likely to confront into a set of plausible scenarios. The report comes just weeks in advance of the Defense Department’s submission of the Quadrennial Defense Review to Congress in early February.


The War in Afghanistan in Strategic Context
Testimony
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

11/17/2009
afghanistan, army, competitive/grand strategies, iraq, radical islamism, SLH

prepared statement for testimony before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation


US Nuclear Forces: Meeting the Challenge of a Proliferated World
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

10/02/2009
nuclear forces, proliferation, SLH

This report seeks to provide the basis for an informed and constructive debate over the role of nuclear weapons in the overall US defense posture. To this end, the principal focus is on identifying the existing and emerging security environment as it pertains to nuclear weapons. The report also offers some recommendations on how the United States might best respond to the challenges posed by nuclear proliferation, and, hopefully, create a more secure global environment.


An Air Force Strategy for the Long Haul
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Tom Ehrhard

09/17/2009
air force, critical technologies, nuclear forces, personnel and readiness, select weapons systems, service budgets, service-focused analysis, SLH, systems/force structure

This monograph discusses the current state of the United States Air Force and how it can better align its institutional identity and force posture to the future security environment. It offers a fiscally-constrained menu of recommendations for how that realignment might be realized over the next twenty years, with a larger force posture in mind.


Regaining Strategic Competence
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich and Barry Watts

09/01/2009
personnel and readiness, qdr, qdr 2009, SLH

The central argument of this report is that, in light of the complex and intensifying security challenges the United States now faces, the nation can no longer afford poor strategic performance. The time to reverse the decline in US strategic competence is long overdue. The first task is for American political and military leaders to develop a clearer understanding of what strategy actually is, and what cognitive skills are necessary to craft and implement good strategies.


Impact of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on the US Military’s Plans, Programs, and Budgets
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Todd Harrison

08/12/2009
afghanistan, army, cost of military operations, iraq, military operations, personnel and readiness, select weapons systems, service-focused analysis, SLH, systems/force structure

This report assesses the effect that the operations in these two theaters have had on the plans, programs, and budgets of the US military, specifically those of the US Army. It makes projections for the future costs of the operations in these two theaters.


Reshaping America's Alliances for the Long Haul
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Evan Montgomery

06/01/2009
alliances, competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, military operations, SLH

This report considers whether America’s current alliances are adequate or appropriate for helping the US meet its security challenges and the ways in which the current alliance portfolio should be revised to address future challenges.


Nuclear Terrorism: Assessing the Threat, Developing a Response
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Evan Montgomery

04/22/2009
homeland security, nuclear forces, proliferation, radical islamism, SLH

This report examines tthe issue of nuclear terrorism and attempts to answer the following questions: How real is the risk that a terrorist group could acquire or construct a functional nuclear device, and how might it attempt to do so? Which group poses the greatest threat in this regard,how has that threat changed over time, and is it currently growing or abating? What existing and prospective measures will prove most effective in preventing terrorists from obtaining a nuclear weapon, stopping them from delivering and detonating a weapon if prevention fails, and responding both at home and abroad in the event that an attack succeeds?


Assessment of Secretary Gates' Decisions with CSBA's Defense Program Outlined in the "Strategy for the Long Haul"
Highlight
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Charlotte Brock, Chris Sullivan, Jim Thomas, Todd Harrison

04/10/2009
adb (year), SLH, annual defense budget, cost of defense-overview, critical technologies, defense budget topline, qdr, qdr 2009, select weapons systems, systems/force structure, tables and graphs

On April 6, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced substantial changes to the defense program that bring it more in line with CSBA’s "Strategy for the Long Haul” series of monographs. The reports are the culmination of over two years of research and analysis by CSBA, and assess existing and emerging challenges to US security, defense resources, the military services and their programs, America’s alliance structure, and strategy. This is a comparison of CSBA’s recommendations with the decisions made by Secretary Gates.


The Future of U.S. Ground Forces
Testimony
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

03/26/2009
army, china, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis, SLH

Testimony Before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Airland Subcommittee


Charting A Course
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work

02/17/2009
competitive/grand strategies, navy, qdr 2009, service budgets, service-focused analysis, SLH, systems/force structure, usmc

presentation slides from congressional briefing


The US Navy: Charting a Course for Tomorrow's Fleet
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work

02/17/2009
competitive/grand strategies, navy, qdr 2009, service budgets, service-focused analysis, SLH, systems/force structure, usmc

In this report, Work assesses the adequacy and affordability of current US Navy plans in light of trends in naval warfare, expected future budget environments and the likely operational demands associated with the enduring long-term strategic challenges. The report recommends changes to the current Navy plans in order to envision a future fleet that is more capable and affordable.


The US Marine Corps: Fleet Marine Forces for the 21st Century
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Dakota Wood

11/17/2008
usmc, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis, SLH

The report makes recommendations for Marine Corps strategic,operational and organizational concept development that will help position the Marines to maximize their utility and value as soldiers of the sea, able to successfully support US national security objectives in an increasingly complex and dangerous world.


Special Operations Forces: Future Challenges and Opportunities
Audio (MP3)
By Robert Martinage

11/17/2008
SLH

Special Operations Forces: Future Challenges and Opportunities


Special Operations Forces: Future Challenges and Opportunities
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Martinage

11/18/2008
systems/force structure, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis, SLH

Presentation slides from Reorienting US Military Services Conference


An Army at Crossroads
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

11/18/2008
army, china, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis, SLH

Presentation slides from Reorienting US Military Services Conference


Fleet Marine Forces for the 21st Century
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Dakota Wood

11/18/2008
SLH, usmc, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis

Presentation slides from Reorienting US Military Services Conference


An Army at the Crossroads
Audio (MP3)
By Andrew Krepinevich

11/17/2008
SLH

An Army at the Crossroads


An Army At The Crossroads
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

11/17/2008
army, china, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis, SLH

The report makes recommendations on achieving a more balanced force—one that is not only balanced between the demands of irregular and conventional operations, but also one that is more evenly weighted between the Active and Reserve Components.


Special Operation Forces: Future Challenges and Opportunities
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Martinage

11/17/2008
systems/force structure, dod strategy and policy, military operations, personnel and readiness, service-focused analysis, SLH

This report addresses the expansion and growing role of US Special Operations Forces.


Fleet Marine Forces for the 21st Century
Audio (MP3)
By Dakota Wood

11/17/2008
SLH

Fleet Marine Forces for the 21st Century


Military Manpower for the Long Haul
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak

10/15/2008
dod strategy and policy, personnel and readiness, service budgets, systems/force structure, SLH

This report discusses the requirements and challenges confronting military manpower in coming years. It considers a range of proposals for improving recruitment and retention efforts, including both relatively narrow traditional options and new, broader approaches.


The US Defense Industrial Base: Past, Present and Future
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

10/15/2008
alliances, competitive/grand strategies, critical technologies, defense industry, national defense components, select weapons systems, SLH

The report reviews the industry’s performance since World War II; considers the role of the federal government in facilitating a more efficient and effective structure; and raises the question of what may need to be done to ensure that the industrial base can meet the requirements of the US military Services in coming decades.


Integrating Disruptive Technologies in DoD
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Tom Ehrhard

09/04/2008
critical technologies, personnel and readiness, select weapons systems, SLH, systems/force structure, transformation strategy


Defense Investment Strategies
Audio (MP3)
By Andrew Krepinevich

08/22/2008
SLH

Defense Investment Strategies


Strategy for the Long Haul: Welcome
Audio (MP3)
By Dave McCurdy

08/22/2008
SLH

Strategy for the Long Haul: Welcome


Challenges to US National Security
Audio (MP3)
By Robert Work

08/22/2008
SLH

Challenges to US National Security


Training, Operational Art, and Strategic Competence
Audio (MP3)
By Barry Watts

08/22/2008
SLH

Training, Operational Art, and Strategic Competence


U.S. Combat Training, Operational Art, and Strategic Competence
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

08/21/2008
personnel and readiness, qdr, qdr 2009, SLH

This report assesses the need for an overhaul of training and education of America’s service personnel and the importance of strategic thinking in senior leaders.


Defense Investment Strategies in an Uncertain World
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

08/21/2008
adb (year), annual defense budget, cbr, competitive/grand strategies, cost of defense-overview, cost of military operations, critical technologies, defense appropriations, defense authorization, defense budget process, defense budget topline, defense industry, qdr, qdr 2009, scenarios, SLH, systems/force structure

This report provides a framework for thinking about investment strategies at a time when the United States is at war, and facing the need to transform its military owing to the likelihood of significant shifts in the character of the military competition.


The Challenges to U.S. National Security
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich, Robert Work, Robert Martinage

08/21/2008
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, military operations, qdr, qdr 2009, radical islamism, china, proliferation, SLH

This report translates the principal challenges to US security into a representative set of contingencies in order to determine what resources will be required, and how they should be apportioned among forces and capabilities.


U.S. Defense Budget -- Options and Choices for the Long Haul
Report
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Steven Kosiak

08/21/2008
adb (year), annual defense budget, cost of defense-overview, cost of military operations, defense budget process, defense budget topline, federal budget, personnel and readiness, qdr, qdr 2009, service budgets, SLH

This report overviews the budget environment and explores a range of options to make the Services’ plans more affordable.


Future Security Environment Presentation
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Robert Work

08/21/2008
competitive/grand strategies, dod strategy and policy, military operations, qdr, qdr 2009, radical islamism, china, proliferation, SLH

Presentation slides from August 21, 2008 Strategy for the Long Haul initiative launch.


Investment Strategies Presentation
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Andrew Krepinevich

08/21/2008
adb (year), annual defense budget, cbr, competitive/grand strategies, cost of defense-overview, cost of military operations, critical technologies, defense appropriations, defense authorization, defense budget process, defense budget topline, defense industry, qdr, qdr 2009, scenarios, SLH, systems/force structure

Presentation slides from August 21, 2008 Strategy for the Long Haul initiative launch.


Strategic Competence Presentation
Slides
(PDF file - opens in new window)
By Barry Watts

08/21/2008
personnel and readiness, qdr, qdr 2009, SLH

Presentation slides from August 21, 2008 Strategy for the Long Haul initiative launch.


Strategy for the Long Haul

CSBA’s Strategy for the Long Haul moves beyond generalities to provide the new Administration with specific recommendations rooted in solid contingency planning and an independent, comprehensive defense strategy to jump-start the next Quadrennial Defense Review in 2009.

Four defense reviews of US military strategy, capabilities and forces since 1993 have sought to reorient the US military to address new and enduring challenges to international peace and stability. The United States now finds itself at war with radical Islamism, and facing an increasingly assertive China and an emerging “nuclear arc of instability” stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Japan. The new administration needs a clear understanding of these challenges, and how they differ from the “traditional” threats to security that drove previous defense reviews.

Project Goal

The principal goal is to shape and inform the next defense strategy review. To this end, CSBA seeks to provide a coherent and comprehensive analytic foundation for thinking about key defense strategy, policy, resource, infrastructure, and program issues to assist the new administration in its 2009 QDR planning process and to help Congress and the strategic studies community evaluate the QDR once completed. CSBA will:

Assess the future security environment and diagnose the principal challenges confronting the United States

Propose a strategy to address these challenges, using a representative set of planning contingencies

Explore budget paths for programs and forces

Assess human and material resources, and education and training requirements

Examine alternatives to better organize for effective national security

Project Publications

Separate monographs address:

Assessment of Secretary Gates’ Decisions with CSBA’s Defense Program Outlined in the “Strategy for the Long Haul”

On April 6, 2009 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced substantial changes to the defense program that bring it more in line with CSBA’s “Strategy for the Long Haul” series of monographs. [Comparison of CSBA’s recommendations with the decisions made by Secretary Gates.]

The Challenges to US National Security

Translates the principal challenges to US security into a representative set of contingencies in order to determine what resources will be required, and how they should be apportioned among forces and capabilities.

US Military Power and Concepts of Operation

Provides the connective tissue between the threats to US security and the capabilities and force elements needed to address the new challenges confronting the nation.

The Defense Budget

Overviews the budget environment and explores a range of options to make the Services’ plans more affordable.

The Defense Industrial Base

Addresses the US defense industry’s role as a strategic asset, and how it can best serve in that role.

Manpower

Examines recruitment and retention of quality people in sufficient numbers at an acceptable cost.

Training, Operational Art, and Strategic Competence

Assesses the need for an overhaul of training and education of America’s service personnel and the importance of strategic thinking in senior leaders.

Restructuring the US Alliance Portfolio

Considers the nature and type of alliances the United States needs in order to meet existing and emerging security challenges.

Ground Forces

Explores how the US Army and Marine Corps might best be organized, structured, modernized, and postured to meet existing and emerging challenges to US security.

Special Forces

Addresses the expansion and growing role of US Special Forces.

Maritime Forces

Addresses how US maritime forces might best be organized, structured, modernized, and postured to meet existing and emerging challenges to US Security.

Air and Space Forces

Explores how Air and Space Forces might best be organized, structured, modernized, and postured to meet existing and emerging challenges to US Security.

Strategic Forces

Examines the circumstances under which nuclear strategy and force posture decisions must be made today.

Modernization Strategies

Explores potential modernization strategies that can best support the US defense posture in an era of great geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Organizing for National Security

Assesses how the United States Government can best organize itself to ensure effective strategic planning and execution of strategy.

A Grand Strategy for the United States

Synthesizes the findings and insights of the study series.

 

Our Team

CSBA experts have extensive experience in military and government affairs with a demonstrated record on producing scholarly diagnostic analyses and assessments.

(see Staff Bios)