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CSBA in the News
January 24: Delays in passing the full FY08 war funding request may make it more difficult for Pentagon planners to budget accurately for the coming fiscal year, surmised Steve Kosiak, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Meanwhile, the situation in Iraq is changing, adding more uncertainty to war budget projections, he added. Sources Say Iraq Supplemental May Not Accompany Budget, National Journal January 23: As the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Andrew Krepinevich’s job is to think about the security challenges of the future. He and his organization have been working on a strategy to present to the next US president’s transition team. Mr Krepinevich, who spent 21 years in the US army, has been an adviser to many senior officials in the Pentagon and has also guided US allies on strategy. Security: Four questions for the US, Financial Times January 22: While our planes aged, Donald Rumsfeld also slowed Army and Marine Corps modernization, allowed the Navy to shrink, and let our space program drift and deteriorate. As defense analyst Andrew Krepinevich has remarked, since 9/11 we have seen a largely "hollow build-up," one filled with funds for operations, maintenance, readiness, and health care--but not weapons. Chicken Little is Right, The Weekly Standard January 20: Dakota Wood, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a policy research institute, co-authored a report that urged caution in buying too many MRAPs. Wood, in an e-mail, said the added protection of MRAPs limits maneuverability and connection to what's going on outside the truck. That, in turn, could hinder counterinsurgency operations that require troops to mix with local populations in order to protect them and obtain information about insurgents, he said." Gates Lauds MRAPs as Iraq Bombings Spike, USA Today January 20: “Unless you are suppressing insurgents the way the Romans did — creating a desert and calling it peace — it typically can take the better part of a decade or more,” said Andrew Krepinevich, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “The paradox,” he added, “is that counterinsurgency requires convincing the Iraqis of our staying power. At the same time, the American people view success in terms of how quickly we can pull out.” War, Meet the 2008 Campaign, New York Times January 17: Communication links to and from satellites are open to interference. In cyber-warfare, critical parts of the space system could be attacked from distant computers. Even without external meddling, notes Tom Ehrhard, a senior fellow at the CSBA, American forces struggle to find enough bandwidth and to prevent the myriad of electronic systems from jamming each other. Disharmony in the Spheres, The Economist January 15: Dakota Wood, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, predicts difficult fights will continue in northern Iraq until U.S. commanders commit more troops, or more Iraqi soldiers backing U.S. troops become competent. Al-Qaeda terrorists will keep moving to where the U.S. troop presence is lightest, Wood said."It's a consequence of not having enough boots on the ground," Wood said. Raid Shows Risks In New Tactic To Hunt Al-Qaeda, USA Today January 11: Analysts cited several reasons for a largely status-quo fiscal 2009 budget request -- not the least of which is that the clock is ticking down on the Bush administration. "Typically, the biggest changes happen the first year or two," said Steven Kosiak, a budget analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Pentagon Expected to Offer Few Changes in Fiscal 2009 Budget Plan, Congress Daily January 9: Al-Qaeda in Iraq is making a stand in northern Iraq because U.S. forces are thinner there, said Dakota Wood, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. As U.S. troops press al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Pentagon said Wednesday that it plans to send about 3,000 service members to Afghanistan in case the Taliban attempts to mount a spring offensive. Renewed Raids on Al-Qaeda Take Toll, USA Today January Issue: Ronald O’Rourke, the respected naval programs analyst at the Congressional Research Service, and Robert Work, a well-regarded naval analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, shared the Secretary’s and CNO’s confidence that the LCS program would proceed as the core of the rebuilding plan. Is the 313-Ship Fleet Realistic? Naval Institute Proceedings December 27: [A] growing number of counterinsurgency experts, prodded by an October report by influential Pentagon consultant Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., have argued that the hulking vehicles are antithetical to fighting a guerrilla war. Guerrilla warfare, or counterinsurgency, requires soldiers to mingle with Iraqi citizens -- a task that has been at the center of the strategy implemented by Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the Iraq war commander. Military Thinks Twice on Fortified Trucks, Los Angeles Times
December 27: "The best way to deter adversaries and to dissuade potential competitors is to have the baddest, most operationally capable and flexible, and most lethal military possible," says Robert Work, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington think tank. After nearly five years of war in Iraq, Bush's go-it-alone strategy has angered many inside the Pentagon who believe the only way forward is to rebuild the trust and confidence of allies so they can be counted on if and when needed. U.S. Navy Aims To Flex 'Soft Power', Christian Science Monitor
December 13: The $11 billion difference between the Democratic and Republican domestic proposals is slight in comparison to the budget strain caused by war funding and DOD excess, according to Steve Kosiak, director of budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "This administration is only here for another year, and they have no plans to address long-term deficit," Kosiak said. "Although the administration has criticized Congress for minor increases in the domestic budget, their own budget shows very little restraint." Democrats Put Blank Checks Back on Table, Scoop Independent News December 10: Andrew Krepinevich, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and an expert on counterinsurgency, said the decision of the military's top commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, "to have his soldiers 'get out and walk' -- leaving the protection of their vehicles and moving among the population has been the key to establishing an enduring sense of security. "He likened the approach to a cop walking the beat rather than driving through a neighborhood with the windows rolled up. Army May Cut Armored Vehicles, USA Today December 8: Might UAVs eventually replace manned combat aircraft altogether? The Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an influential American think-tank, advocates cutting back the next generation of manned jets—the Joint Strike Fighter—in favour of unmanned stealth bombers that would operate from aircraft carriers. Much of the work of modern air-defence involves long-distance missile shots rather than acrobatic dog-fights. And when extreme agility is required, the limiting factor on an aircraft's performance is often the need to keep the pilot alive and conscious under high G-forces. Unmanned and Dangerous, The Economist December 7: "The Army has some huge long-term budget problems," said Steven M. Kosiak, vice president of budget studies at the Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments, a defense think tank. The question isn't so much how the government will pay for the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan now, he said. That's being covered by supplemental budgets. The issue is how the Army will afford Future Combat Systems at the same time it's grappling with the cost of adding 65,000 troops and covering rising health care and compensation expenses. The Army's $200 Billion Makeover, Washington Post December 6: Cutting their MRAP requirement is "a very level-headed approach" by the Marines, said Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a think tank here. That's because of the Corps' overall mission and the reduced violence in Anbar. The boost in MRAP orders this year came when IED deaths were soaring, Krepinevich said. Then, "we probably had too few of these things," and military leaders and Congress pushed hard to get more of the vehicles. Defense Chief Decides Against Shifting Marines, USA Today December 5: "I don't think it's the beginning of the end," said Dakota Wood, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and co-author of a study on the vehicles. "But if the improved security situation in Iraq continues, then they don't need as many of these MRAPs as they thought they did." Armored Vehicle Cut Threatens Industry, Associated Press December 4: (D)efending satellites is an expensive, difficult, and often controversial proposition. "There is potential for a revitalized arms race," says Tom Ehrhard, a former Air Force officer now with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "As a strategist, I want to see multiple redundancy and a hardening of systems, and I am going to start thinking about an active defense." It's the latter that worries some observers. An "active defense" could be countermeasures like decoys, elaborate missile defense systems, or even full-fledged offensive weapons orbiting Earth. China Aims High, U.S. News and World Report December 3: Buying fewer $1 million MRAPs will allow the service to put an estimated $1.7 billion toward Humvees or other gear. The Corpsalso needs to replace the M1 Abrams tank, said Dakota Wood, a retired Marine lieutenant colonel and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. U.S. Marines Cut MRAP Plans, Defense News November Issue: Defense analysts Steven M. Kosiak and Barry D. Watts, a former director of program analysis and evaluation at the Pentagon, recently wrote for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments that “in future wars, US aircraft may have to operate at far greater distances than they have in the recent past.” When Bombers Will Be Decisive, Air Force Magazine October 31: Robert Work, a retired Marine officer and analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, said piracy is a “persistent threat” that the Navy has worked to address in recent years. Earlier this month, the Navy added “maritime security” to its list of priorities laid out in its new maritime strategy. Maritime security includes intercepting terrorists and smugglers, deterring pirates and keeping commercial shipping routes safe, he said. “Essentially, you don’t want to use a billion dollar DDG [guided missile destroyer] to suppress pirates,” Work said. Navy Helps Foil Pirates' Attacks On Merchant Ships Off E. Africa, The Virginian-Pilot October 29: (A)ffordability is a primary issue facing any plan to move beyond 313 ships, according to Robert Work, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis. Discussion about moving beyond 313 ships in the Navy is "way, way premature" until the service proves it can build ships that it can afford, he said, citing cost overruns on the Littoral Combat Ship program and potential cost growth on the next-generation carrier and destroyer. To move to a larger Navy, the service would have to repeat the success of the Virginia-class submarine program--which has followed through on demands to reduce its price to $2 billion per unit, Work said. Lawmakers Consider Size of Navy Fleet, Defense Daily October 25: Steven M. Kosiak, vice president for budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said growth in defense spending is probably going to decline in coming years. "Since 2000, the defense budget has grown by about $200 billion, exclusive of the war," he said. "There's a reasonable expectation that it's going to be much flatter than that." For now, the companies are reaping the financial benefits of war. War Contracts Buoy Defense Companies, Washington Post October 24: According to Steve Kosiak, a defense analyst at the non-partisan Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, “it's fair to say that we have pretty much financed this war on the national credit card. Today the CBO said over the next 10 years, Americans could pay up to $705 billion in interest payments to finance the wars. But White House officials, who initially estimated that the war in Iraq would cost $50 to $60 billion, dismissed the report as, quote, a ton of speculation.” Cost of War Estimated at Over $2 Trillion, Marketplace Radio
October 23: The $45.9 billion Bush asked for yesterday comes on top of $150.5 billion already requested for the 2008 fiscal year that started Oct. 1. If passed, it would put the total cost of Iraq, Afghanistan and counterterrorism operations at $806 billion, more than any single U.S. conflict since World War II. A study by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments last month said that in today's dollars the Persian Gulf war of 1991 cost $88 billion, the Korean War cost $456 billion and Vietnam cost $518 billion."We're clearly not at the end of this," said Steven M. Kosiak, the study's author. "This is going to be going on at least through this administration," he added, and "the war costs are likely to be with us even if we do pull out of Iraq soon." Bush Asks Congress For $46 Billion More In War Funding, Washington Post
October 22: Bob Work, an analyst for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the maritime strategy is not really a strategy document but a listing of competencies and priorities for the Navy. The document emphasizes the importance of seapower in a globalized world and establishes goals such as developing “mission-tailored force packages” and maritime domain awareness. “Listing those types of things does not constitute a strategy,” he said. “For example, it says cooperative security is very important -- a strategy would tell me what are the concrete steps that I’m going to take to make that happen.” Analysts Question Navy Assertions About New Maritime Strategy, Inside the Navy
October 21: The desire to provide U.S. troops the best protection is understandable. However, the crash production of MRAPs has both immediate and longer-term implications, not all of which are positive. There are no easy answers to defeating the IED threat, or for protecting American troops from harm in what are inherently dangerous operations. Commanders always face the difficult choice of how much to risk their troops in order to accomplish the mission — but mission success must take priority. Unbalancing the Force? Defense News
October 19: "The rhetoric right now in the Beltway is highly emotional. It's highly stated in absolute terms of 'moral imperatives,' " says Dakota Wood, a retired Marine lieutenant colonel and now an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, another think tank in Washington. On Wednesday, CSBA issued a 65-page report titled "Of IEDs and MRAPs: Force Protection in Complex Irregular Operations," which pointedly questions many of the assumptions underlying the MRAP program. Will MRAPs Become White Elephants? Christian Science Monitor
October 18: The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments study concludes that policymakers should consider the potential downside of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles before rushing them to Iraq. The Pentagon has orders for 6,500 of the vehicles and wants to acquire 15,000 in 2008. The troop-carrying version of the MRAP costs $500,000-$600,000; installing electronic and other equipment can add $250,000 to the cost./.../"Simple solutions to complex problems are inherently attractive and almost always wrong," said Andrew Krepinevich, the center's president. "Prior to making such a substantial commitment to this program, Congress, the Department of Defense and senior military service leaders should carefully consider the array of issues raised in this report." Analysis Warns Of Problems In Rushing Vehicles To Iraq, USA Today
October 17: An independent study released Wednesday questions whether the Pentagon is buying too many bomb-resistant vehicles for troops in Iraq in its frantic rush to correct earlier shortfalls. The question, put forward by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, is a provocative one. There is a long-held assertion in Congress and the military that the more armor given to troops, the better. But averaging about $800,000 a piece and weighing two- to five-times that of the common humvee, the Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles are a hefty national investment that may have a short shelf-life, according to the study. Are Bomb-Resistant Vehicles Worth It? Associated Press
September 4: Some analysts suggest that congressional intervention, especially during times of war, is expected and not always helpful."It's easy to say, 'Protect our troops; no expense is too great,' " says Dakota Wood, a retired Marine lieutenant colonel and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "Coming up with the solutions that are appropriate to the battlefield is more difficult." Congress Pushes Pentagon to Get Moving on Armor, USA Today
September 2: And what happens in Basra could both foreshadow and contribute considerably to that instability. /…/"It's our primary supply line to Iraq. If the south becomes destabilized, could we still withdraw through Kuwait?" says Andrew Krepinevich, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, echoing concerns of U.S. planners. "Do we have to find some other way to get our equipment to a port?" The Violent Consequences of a Pullout, US News and World Report
September Issue: A stealthy, unmanned strike aircraft has the potential to give carriers “something long missing in the carrier air wing: a capable unmanned
August 31: Tom Ehrhard, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and a former Air Force officer, said the F-22, no matter how many are built, is a key component to the United States' continued air dominance and is vital to the Air Force's ability to fight a potential war with a "peer competitor" such as China. He said the extreme cost of the program and its long lifespan is indicative of a problem with the military's purchasing program as a whole, and not an indictment of the Raptor."There's sort of a deadly dance that occurs between the people who are setting out the requirements and Congress who's funding it," explained Ehrhard. "It's like they feed on each other, and it's a major negative spiral." F-22 Continues to 'Abuse Taxpayers,' Critics Say, CNS News
August 29: Classified R&D will comprise 23 percent of the $75.1 billion the Pentagon plans to spend on all research and development by all of the services and defense agencies, said Steven Kosiak, director of budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. That’s the highest percentage since 1988, when secret Cold War R&D consumed 25 percent of the Pentagon’s research budget. And it’s a larger amount in inflation-adjusted terms: the $9.1 billion in 1988 is the equivalent of $16.2 billion today. ‘Black’ U.S. R&D Budget Estimated At $17.5 Billion, Defense News
September Issue: The Marine Corps was designed and intended to operate in a large maritime type environment, said Dakota Wood, a retired Marine officer and military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Its history stretches back to naval infantry and small wars and the kinds of things the Army wouldn’t necessarily be well suited for. The Corps would be wise to not let itself be perceived as a second land army, Wood said. The biggest value that the Corps brings to the nation is its role as a naval service, he said. The war in Iraq, however, will have a lasting impact on the way Marines train for combat and groom future leaders, Wood added. They realize that more attention needs to be paid on educating the force on the complexity of these kinds of situations. While Mired in Iraq, Marines Still See Their Future at Sea, National Defense Magazine
August 20: As for the authorization bills, there are some differences between the House and Senate versions. The Senate bill, for example, removes $13.3 billion from the wartime supplemental and transfers most of it — $12.8 billion — to the regular defense budget, said Steven Kosiak, chief defense budget analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Senators argued that the money, which is mostly for buying equipment and weapons, is intended to fund long-term military requirements rather than short-term needs related to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and thus should be included in the regular budget. Tight Deadline Awaits U.S. Funding Bills, Defense News
August 19: Tom Ehrhard, a UAV expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, says the debate is a “fundamental doctrinal issue” about the current state of Goldwater-Nichols, the 1986 law designed to improve co-ordination across the branches of the military.“The bid for executive agent authority is in part an indictment of current joint organizations,” says Mr Ehrhard. “What the air force is trying to get is supposed to be taken care of with existing organizations but it clearly is not.” US Military in Dogfight Over Drones, Financial Times
August 16: The X-51A could also work as a deterrent, says Tom Ehrhard, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a think tank in Washington. "If a terrorist group had to worry about something like that coming in on their meeting area, that is something they would have to consider," says Mr. Ehrhard, a retired Air Force colonel who specialized in strategy for the service. And for more industrialized nations with their own air defense systems, the X-51A could effectively negate such systems, allowing US air power to get past them. But Ehrhard warns that a "persistent" surveillance system would have to be part of the X-51A platform to make it effective. "It's very sexy to talk about a Mach 6.5, but you have to ask a lot of hard questions about how you turn that Mach 6.5 into an effective weapons system," he says. Future US Air Force Missile: Speeds Up To Mach 6.5, Christian Science Monitor |
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