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Recent CSBA NewsAvoiding a DoD Bailout By Todd Harrison
October 21, 2009: Secretary Gates said recently: “If the Department of Defense can’t figure out a way to defend the United States on a budget of more than half a trillion dollars a year, then our problems are much bigger than anything that can be cured by buying a few more ships and planes. “ He has a point. The problems in the defense budget are much bigger than the recent debates over buying more F-22s, cancelling the presidential Helicopter, or building an alternative engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. In fact, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) problems are eerily similar to the challenges General Motors faced a year ago.
CSBA Releases Three New Reports at a Press Briefing
On August 12, 2009, CSBA hosted a press briefing (C-Span Video Coverage) on the release of three new reports: • Analysis of the FY 2010 Defense Budget Request (download report)
All three reports are authored by Todd Harrison, CSBA’s Fellow for Defense Budget Studies.
At the briefing, Jim Thomas, Vice President for Studies, and Todd Harrison, Fellow for Budget Studies, discussed the Administration’s defense budget request, an historical context of defense spending and projections for the future;differences from previous budgets, including what items were moved from supplemental appropriations into the base budget and the outlook for the future year defense program; program cuts and cancellations; projections for the future costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan;unfunded priorities not included in the budget;classified funding in the budget and historical trends (presentation slides)
CSBA Hosts Congressional Conference on Directed Energy Weapons Systems
On May 20, 2009, CSBA hosted congressional conference on Directed Energy Systems. Congressman Michael Turner, the Ranking Member of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee and a member of the Readiness Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee sponsored the event.
CSBA President Andrew Krepinevich and Senior Fellows Tom Ehrhard and Barry Watts discussed the findings of their recent study Near-Term Prospects for Battlefield Directed-Energy Weapons (download report). They identified the most compelling near-term stimuli for laser systems, explored planning scenarios and operational concepts, and assessed the prospects for fielding operational laser weapons within ten years. (presentation slides)
Following the presentation, an expert panel from the U.S. military services weighed in with their perspectives on the issue. Panelists included Mark Bucknam, Director for Plans, OSD Policy; David Stoudt, Distinguished Engineer for Directed Energy (ST), NAVSEA Technical Warrant for Directed Energy and Electric Weapon Systems, Naval Surface Warfare Center; James Haig (presentation slides), Deputy Director, Office of S&T Integration, USMC; and Rodney L. Robertson (presentation slides), Director, Technical Center, Research, Development, and Acquisition USA Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC).
CSBA Previews 2010 Defense Budget
On February 12, 2009, CSBA hosted the first of two briefings about the 2010 defense budget. The briefing came in advance of an expected release of topline budget figures for FY 2010 and featured Stan Collender of Quorvis Communications and the Center’s President Dr. Krepinevich.
Stan Collender provided an overview of the federal budget situation for 2010, including congressional politics and calendar, and historical context. Collender suggested that deficit reduction is the opposite of what needs to be done in the current economic reality. Therefore, substantial defense budget cuts cannot be foreseen in this environment, he concluded.
Dr. Andrew Krepinevich offered a strategic perspective and addressed programmatic pressures that will affect the FY 2010 defense budget request, as well as suggestions on ways to alleviate those pressures. The financial and economic trends are bound to affect fundamental changes in power relations between regions and states, according to Krepinevich.
Think Tank Warns Against Deferring LRSS Programs
On February 3, 2009, The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments today released new report on The Case for Long-Range Strike: 21st Century Scenarios by Senior Fellow Barry D. Watts.
The report examines the needs, specifications, rationales and urgency for land-based, penetrating, long-range strike system (LRSS) in light of the security environment confronting the United States in the early twenty-first century.
The analysis suggests that it is unwise to defer fielding a new LRSS until the late 2030s or beyond, as earlier Air Force plans proposed. Watts argues for moving forward as rapidly as possible to field follow-on to the B-2 for long-range strike is based on examining a range of “generic scenarios.” While most of the scenarios are conventional, Watts believes that nuclear scenarios merit consideration and strengthen the case. (download report)
New Study Tracks War Costs, Funding Mechanisms
On December 15, 2008, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments released a new report Cost of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Other Military Operations Through 2008 and Beyond. In this report, Steven Kosiak, Vice President for Budget Studies at CSBA offers a comprehensive picture of the direct budgetary costs of US military operations conducted since 2001. The report also discusses the means used to budget for and finance these operations, and includes projections of how much more these operations might cost over the coming decade. (dowload report)
Think Tank Weighs in on the Next QDR
On November 17, 2008, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments released three reports in its Strategy for the Long Haul research and education program designed to support the Pentagon’s upcoming strategic review:
• The US Marine Corps: Fleet Marine Forces for the 21st Century, by Dakota Wood (see presentation slides)
• US Special Operations Forces: Challenges and Opportunities, by Robert Martinage (see presentation slides)(audio record)
In his opening remarks, CSBA Board Chair Dave McCurdy, noted the exceptional timeliness of the studies. He also observed that these studies assess the forces most heavily engaged in operations against Islamic extremist elements and, consequently, will likely be accorded high priority in the incoming Obama Administration’s defense posture review.
CSBA Zooms In on Manpower and Defense Industrial Base At the press briefing on October 15, 2008 the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments today released two new Strategy for the Long Haul Initiative reports:
• Military Manpower for the Long Haul by CSBA’s Vice President for Budget Studies Steven Kosiak. This report discusses the requirements and challenges confronting military manpower in coming years. It considers a range of proposals for improving recruitment and retention efforts, including both relatively narrow traditional options and new, broader approaches. Kosiak believes the United States must continue to make use of traditional tools like enlistment bonuses, but that it should also consider significantly reforming the military’s personnel management and compensation systems. “Among other things, we need to allow for greater flexibility in the length of assignments and careers in the military, as well as compensation levels for different specialties,” Kosiak noted at the briefing. • The US Defense Industrial Base: Past, Present and Future by CSBA’s Senior Fellow Barry Watts. The report reviews the industry’s performance since World War II; considers the role of the federal government in facilitating a more efficient and effective structure; and raises the question of what may need to be done to ensure that the industrial base can meet the requirements of the US military Services in coming decades. Watts concluded that the US defense industrial base has been an important source of competitive advantage for the United States since the 1950s. Notwithstanding well known and nagging problems with cost and schedule in individual acquisition programs, it has produced world-class military systems and weapons. However, the federal government has generally taken a “hands off” approach to managing the industrial base. During the briefing, therefore, Watts stressed the need for Congress and the Pentagon to converge on a long-term, comprehensive approach to ensuring that the industry continues to be a source of strategic advantage in the future. CSBA Weighs in on the Next QDR On August 21, 2008, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments launched its Strategy for the Long Haul initiative with release of four new reports at a half-day conference at the Capitol Hilton in Washington, DC. The conference drew a crowd of over a hundred military experts from Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, defense industry, and the media.
The reports released at the conference included: • The Challenges to U.S. National Security, by Andrew F. Krepinevich, Robert Martinage and Robert Work
Recommendations call on the United States to:
• Consider homeland defense a key component of the sub-strategies needed to deal with the three key challenges; • In cases where numbers are especially important, focus on developing less costly new weapon systems; • Institutionalize strategic competence by establishing a small group of individuals with the cognitive skills for crafting long-term strategies either in OMB, or by recreating the Eisenhower-era Planning Board; CSBA Hosts 24th Annual Pre-Budget Release Press Briefing Experts Speculate on Potential Impact of the New Budget on US Strategy, Defense Priorities and Federal Deficit On January 30, 2008, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments hosted the 24th annual pre-budget release press briefing in advance of the Defense Department's release of the FY 2009 Defense Budget. CSBA Vice President of Budget Studies Steven Kosiak, Vice President for Strategic Studies Robert Work, and Stanley Collender of Qorvis Communications previewed the major issues likely to surround the request, including funding for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Services' modernization plans, and the overall federal budget environment.
According to Stanley Collender, the new budget is unlikely to make any real attempt at deficit reduction and, indeed the coming budget may well add tens of billions of dollars to next year's deficit. Steven Kosiak noted that the Department of Defense's budget has been increased dramatically over the past eight years and that, even excluding funding for military operations, this year's (2008) defense budget is about 30 percent higher in real (inflation-adjusted) terms than the 2000 budget. He also speculated that the 2009 budget request is likely to include further increases. Robert Work stated that the new budget request, being the last of this administration's, was likely to be a transitional document. Significant changes in plans would likely have to wait until a new administration enters office next year.
CSBA Briefing Sparks Debate on MRAP Program on the Hill
On October 17, 2007, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments with the sponsorship of Senator Evan Bayh held a congressional briefing on the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected class Vehicles Program.
Representative Vic Snyder, chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, opened up the discussion by stressing the importance of thorough and informed decision-making on the Hill, especially when it comes to the costly DoD programs and systems funding.
At the briefing, CSBA experts Andrew Krepinevich and Dakota Wood shared the findings of their new report,"Of IEDs and MRAPs: Force Protection In Complex Irregular Operations", released earlier that morning (view presentation slides).
Following the presentation, a panel of military experts BGen(Sel) Lawrence D. Nicholson (USMC), Col. Robert B. Killebrew (USA, ret.) and Lt. Gen. Wallace C. "Chip" Gregson (USMC, ret.) weighed in on the report with their personal insights, and shared institutional rationales for the way the MRAP program has developed.
Experts Urge Congress, OSD and the Navy to Protect the UCAS-D Technology Maturation Program from Institutional Neglect
On July 11, 2007, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments with the sponsorship of Senator Byron L. Dorgan held a congressional briefing on the Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program.
The expert panel included Andrew Krepinevich, CSBA's President and CEO, Senator Byron L. Dorgan (D-ND), CSBA's Robert Work and Thomas Ehrhard, James Thomas, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Resources and Plans; David Ochmanek, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategy and currently Senior Defense Analyst at RAND; and Rear Admiral Eric McVadon, former naval and defense attaché to Beijing. In his opening remarks, Senator Dorgan asserted that UCAS will be a significant part of the future defense force for the Navy.
Robert Work and Thomas Ehrhard pointed out that the reason why UCAS-D is so important is that it will be the first unmanned aircraft designed specifically for conventional carrier operations and it can add a margin of range, stealth, and persistence not seen in past carrier air wings.
The N-UCAS's unique combination of great unrefueled range and dramatically improved stealth and persistence could transform carriers and their embarked CVWs from operational strike systems with outstanding global mobility and relatively limited tactical reach into global, long-range, persistent surveillance-strike systems effective across the full range of 21st century security challenges. However, to achieve this potentially revolutionary transformation, Congress, OSD, and the Navy should support the UCAS-D program and an expanded technology maturation effort. (see event details) (view presentation slides)
CSBA Hosts Press Briefing on US Fighter Modernization Plans
On June 20, 2007, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments hosted a press briefing on U.S. Fighter Modernization Plans.
Under current plans, the US military will spend over $300 billion on fighter modernization over the next several decades, primarily for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. This is far more than is projected to be spent on any other major acquisition program.
At the briefing, Barry Watts and Steven Kosiak, the authors of CSBA's new report, US Fighter Modernization Plans: Near-Term Choices, discussed military requirements for US airpower (considering the F-35 program in the context of broader requirements for fixed-wing airpower) and the affordability of existing plans.
The authors also explored a series of options for the F-35 program that reasonably bound the debate over restructuring the program-- given current political, strategic and operational realities.
In the report they conclude that the F-35 program should not be cancelled, but does need to be substantially restructured, and that senior Pentagon officials need to reach a decision on how to restructure the program sooner rather than later. (download report)
Krepinevich Warns Senators: Forces Moving Closer Toward the Red Line
On April 17, 2007, CSBA President Andrew Krepinevich testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Future of the Army.
The Committee sought to determine whether the Army and Marine Corps are properly sized, organized, and equipped to respond to the most likely missions over the next two decades while retaining adequate capability to respond to all contingencies along the spectrum of combat.
In his testimony, Dr. Krepinevich asserted the U.S. all-volunteer ground force is streched to the limit, explored challenges and opportunities in plans to expand the size of the force, and stressed the need to prepare the U.S. military for future irregular conflicts. (read testimony) |
Recent CSBA Events
October 2, 2009: CSBA released US Nuclear Forces: Meeting the Challenge of a Proliferated World by Andrew Krepinevich. This report seeks to provide the basis for an informed and constructive debate over the role of nuclear weapons in the overall US defense posture. To this end, the principal focus is on identifying the existing and emerging security environment as it pertains to nuclear weapons. The report also offers some recommendations on how the United States might best respond to the challenges posed by nuclear proliferation, and, hopefully, create a more secure global environment. (download report) September 17, 2009: CSBA released report An Air Force Strategy for the Long Haul. The report makes the case for placing greater emphasis on long-range, unmanned and stealthy air-breathing systems and on a more survivable space force. (download report) September 8, 2009: CSBA released The F-22 Program in Retrospect by Senior Fellow Barry Watts. This backgrounder reviews the F-22 acquisition program, focusing on the cost increases and schedule slippages; considers lessons learned; and offers insights on the possible future directions for the program. (download backgrounder) September 3, 2009: CSBA released Analysis of the FY 2010 Defense Authorization Bills by Fellow for Budget Studies Todd Harrison. June 30, 2009: The Pentagon’s Wasting Assets by Andrew Krepinevich was a cover feature in the July/August 2009 Issue of Foreign Affairs magazine. The monograph is the capstone of CSBA’s Strategy for the Long Haul initiative (read the article) On June 25, 2009, the full House passed its version of the fiscal year (FY) 2010 national defense authorization act. The Senate passed its version of the bill on July 23, 2009. The CSBA backgrounder provides a brief assessment of how these two bills compare to each other and to the administration’s request, and what issues remain to be resolved during conference. Todd Harrison concludes in his analysis that almost all of the program cuts and shifts in funding Gates and the White House proposed have been accepted by the House and Senate in their authorization bills. (download backgrounder) September 1, 2009: CSBA released new report Regaining Strategic Competence by Andrew Krepinevich and Barry Watts. The report finds that strategic performance of U.S. political and military leaders has been declining in recent decades, and urges the Administration to make regaining strategic competence an overriding imperative in order to meet the security challenges of the twenty-first century. Watts and Krepinevich identify the top ten obstacles to crafting good strategy and offer advice on overcoming these obstacles. (download report) August 28, 2009: CSBA Fellow for Budget Studies Todd Harrison presented on the Resourcing a Full Spectrum Army During Difficult Financial Times at the G-8 Future of the Army Symposium (view presentation slides) August 26, 2009: CSBA released Life After FCS by Research Fellow Evan Montgomery. This backgrounder offers some preliminary observations on the likely characteristics of the new program, and raises several questions that the Army will have to address as it goes forward. (download) July 30, 2009: CSBA released Correcting Course: The Cancellation of the Future Combat Systems Program backgrounder by Andrew Krepinevich and Evan Montgomery (download backgrounder) June 23, 2009: CSBA Senior Fellow Dakota Wood testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform in an open hearing on MV-22 Osprey Program (download testimony)(hearing information) June 16, 2009: CSBA President Andrew Krepinevich joined the Defense Policy Board. The Board is chartered to provide the Department of Defense with independent, informed advise on broad policy issues. CSBA Board Chair Dave McCurdy also serves on the board. June 1, 2009: CSBA welcomes Ambassador Eric S. Edelman as the Center’s new Distinguished Fellow. In his new role, Ambassador Edelman will lead independent projects and participate in ongoing CSBA research activities in the areas of national security policy, strategy, and alliance matters. (press release) June 1, 2009: CSBA released Reshaping America's Alliances for the Long Haul report by Research Fellow Evan Montgomery (download report ) May 7, 2009: The release of the Obama Administration’s FY 2010 budget request signals a new direction for the Department of Defense. CSBA has released an update authored by Todd Harrison which compares this year’s budget request to the previous budget and provides a detailed analysis of significant changes. (download update)(read press release) April 30, 2009: CSBA President Andrew Krepinevich testified before the full Senate Armed Services Committee in an open hearing on the Secretary of Defense’s 2010 budget recommendations (hearing details) April 30, 2009: CSBA Senior Fellow Barry Watts testified before the Armed Services Subcommittee on Airland in an open hearing on the Current and Future Roles, Missions, and Capabilities of U.S. Military Air Power (hearing details) April 22, 2009: CSBA hosted a live internet briefing with Andrew Krepinevich and Evan Montgomery to release our new report Nuclear Terrorism: Assessing the Threat, Developing Response by CSBA's Fellow Evan Montgomery (recorded event) (report) April 17, 2009: CSBA releases Somali Piracy: Not Just a Naval Problem backgrounder by Senior Fellow Martin Murphy (backgrounder) April 10, 2009: Recently, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has announced substantial changes to the defense program. We've come up with CSBA's comparison of Strategy for the Long Haul recommendations with the decisions made by Secretary Gates. (table) April 9, 2009: The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is pleased to announce the addition of Jim Thomas and Todd Harrison to its expert team. Jim Thomas joins CSBA as Vice President for Studies, and will direct the organization’s strategic studies and defense spending research and programs. Todd Harrison will lead the budget program as Fellow for Defense Budget Studies. (press release) April 6, 2009: CSBA concludes that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ programmatic decisions today generally align with the strategic direction laid down in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and confirmed in the 2008 National Defense Strategy. While the Department has articulated a new strategic approach in recent years, it postponed many hard decisions necessary to harmonize the defense program with that strategy. Secretary Gates’ announcements represent an important step toward better aligning the Department’s program with its strategy. (press release) March 26, 2009: CSBA President Andrew Krepinevich testified on the current and future roles, missions, and capabilities of U.S. military land power before the Subcommittee on Airland of the Senate Armed Services Committee. (hearing information) (prepared testimony text)(video) March 19, 2009: CSBA President Andrew Krepinevich testified before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations on the Project on National Security Reform (prepared testimony text)(hearing information)(video) March 13, 2009: The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments announces the release of Small Boats, Weak States, Dirty Money: Piracy and Maritime Terrorism, a new book written by the Center’s Senior Fellow Dr. Martin Murphy. (press release) March 3, 2009: CSBA Senior Fellow Robert Martinage testified before the Terrorism, Unconventional Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee on Special Operations Forces: Challenges and Opportunities. (prepared testimony text) (hearing transcript) (hearing details) February 17, 2009: CSBA released a new report The US Navy: Charting a Course for Tomorrow’s Fleet by Vice President of Strategic Studies Robert Work at a briefing on Capitol Hill (download report)(download presentation slides). February 3, 2009: CSBA hosted press briefing on the newly published report The Case for Long-Range Strike: 21st Century Scenarios by CSBA’s Senior Fellow Barry Watts. (download report)
October 22, 2008: CSBA releases "FY2009 Defense Appropriations Act " backgrounder by Steven Kosiak (download backgrounder)
September 17, 2008: CSBA releases "Comparison of the FY 2009 Senate and House Defense Authorization Bills" backgrounder by Steven Kosiak (download backgrounder)
September 9, 2008: CSBA offers its "Analysis of Proposals to Allocate Four Percent of GDP to Defense" backgrounder by Steven Kosiak (download backgrounder)
September 4, 2008: Tom Ehrhard considers the issue of Integrating Disruptive Technologies in the Department of Defense(download presentation slides) August 21, 2008: CSBA launches the Strategy for the Long Haul initiative with a release of four new reports. (more) (media coverage) July 9, 2008: Dr. Andrew Krepinevich testified before the House Armed Subcommittee on Services Oversight and Investigations on Defense Language and Cultural Awareness Transformation (hearing information)(read testimony)(audio) June 18, 2008: CSBA releases "Classified Funding in the FY 2009 Defense Budget Request" update by Steven Kosiak (download update )
June 18, 2008: CSBA releases "Range, Persistence, Stealth, and Networking: The Case for a Carr ier-Based Unmanned Combat Air System" co-authored by Robert Work and Tom Ehrhard (download report)
April 21, 2008: CSBA releases "Analysis of the FY 2009 Defense Budget Request" report by Steven Kosiak, Vice President, Budget Studies. (download report )
March 27, 2008: Robert Martinage briefs senior senate staff at the Future Defense Planning Needs Seminar on Capitol Hill (more info) (presentation slides)
December 19, 2007: Steven Kosiak offers his analysis of the FY 2008 Department of Defense Appropriations Act. (download update )
October 17, 2007: CSBA released "Of IEDs and MRAPs: Force Protection In Complex Irregular Operations" Report co-authored by Andrew Krepinevich and Dakota Wood (download report) September 19, 2007: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments held a congressional briefing on U.S. Fighter Modernization Plans. Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne joined CSBA experts Steven Kosiak and Barry Watts, and Dr. David Ochmanek, Senior Defense Analyst at RAND, as a featured speaker. (see briefing slides) September 13, 2007: CSBA releases "The Cost of U.S. Operations for Iraq and Afghanistan and for the War on Terrorism" update authored by Steven Kosiak (download update) September 10, 2007: Dr. Krepinevich shared his assessment of the Iraq surge in a closed senior Senate staff briefing. (see briefing slides) August 13, 2007: CSBA releases "Comparison of the FY 2008 House and SASC Defense Authorization Bills" update authored by Steven Kosiak (download update) July 25, 2007: CSBA Vice President for Budget Studies, Steven Kosiak, offers an update on classified funding in his "Classified Funding in the FY 2008 Defense Budget Request" (download update) July 23, 2007: CSBA releases "Overview of the Administration FY 2008 Request for Homeland Security" update authored by Steven Kosiak (download update) June 20, 2007: Dr. Krepinevich testified before the House Armed Services Committee on Defense Roles, Missions, and Requirements. (more...) (read testimony) June 7, 2007: CSBA releases new Report "Analysis of the FY 2008 Defense Budget Request" by Steven Kosiak (download report) June 6, 2007: Steven Kosiak offers an update on Historical and Projected Funding for Defense: Presentation of the FY 2008 Request in Tables and Charts (download update) May 10, 2007: CSBA releases new Backgrounder "The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program: A New Dawn for Naval Aviation?" co-authored by Thomas Ehrhard and Robert Work (download backgrounder) May 9, 2007: CSBA releases new Report "Avoiding the Plague: an Assessment of U.S. Plans and Funding for Countering Bioterrorism" by Robert Sherman (more)(download report) April 20, 2007: CSBA releases Report "A New Global Defense Posture for the Second Transoceanic Era" co-authored by Andrew Krepinevich and Robert Work (download report) April 19, 2007: CSBA releases Report "Know When to Hold 'Em, Know When to Fold 'Em: A New Transformation Plan for the Navy's Surface Battle Line" by Robert Work. (download report) April 13, 2007: Robert Work discussed the issue of Global Basing and Mobility at the fourth installment of the Future Defense Planning Needs Seminar for Senior Congressional Staff. (see slides) March 1, 2007: CSBA releases Report "Six Decades of Guided Munitions and Battle Networks: Progress and Prospects" by Barry Watts. (download report) February 28, 2007: Dr. Krepinevich briefed senior congressional staff on the Army's new counter-insurgency doctrine, and the Administration's plans for military surge in Iraq. (more...) February 22, 2007: Robert Martinage presented at the CSIS Future of SOF Aviation Project on Stealthy Mobility and Support Aircraft for US Special Operations Forces (see slides) February 21, 2007: Robert Martinage briefed MIT and Lincoln Laboratories associates on Technological Implications of the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (see slides) February 6, 2007: Steven Kosiak testified before the Senate Budget Committee on War Costs (read the testimony) (watch broadcast)
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