Spread of Weapons, Cyber Threats, Tight Budgets Await
One of Washington’s favorite parlor games involves guessing which of the president’s key advisers may be departing and the identities of those who might replace them. At the center of this game is U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who is widely rumored to be departing his post sometime this year, perhaps as soon as this summer.
As Gates is arguably this country’s finest defense secretary ever, his will be a hard act to follow, and this has only heightened the speculation regarding who might succeed him.
Whoever takes the reins at the Pentagon will face a formidable array of challenges, including a defense budget that is almost certain to decline, perhaps substantially, in the coming years as Washington tries to come to grips with the country’s rapidly weakening fiscal standing.
Moreover, while military budget cuts are characteristic of periods following the end of a war, such as Korea and Vietnam, or when the threats to the nation’s security diminish substantially, as occurred at the Cold War’s end, the opposite is occurring now.
Consider that while U.S. forces are drawing down in Iraq and should begin withdrawing from Afghanistan in the not-too-distant future, it is far from clear they will leave a less threatening situation behind than what exists today. While the Obama administration has opened a third front in Libya, there are broader risks in the Mideast as a number of states make the volatile transition from authoritarianism to proto-democracies.
If that were the next defense secretary’s only problems, they would be formidable enough. However, there are other storm clouds visible on the security horizon.