Trends in nuclear proliferation and doctrine could render U.S. guarantees to allied countries “not very credible”, according to strategic-weapons analyst Barry Watts of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Affairs. In a new CSBA report, Watts notes that U.S. actions – reductions in nuclear forces and a steady drawdown in the ability to build new warheads – are at odds with activities in Russia, emerging nuclear nations and, possibly, with China.
Presenting his report today in Washington, Watts argued that many countries are no longer pursuing nuclear weapons as a direct counter to U.S. nuclear power, but to compensate for relatively weak conventional forces. That includes Russia, where Watts cites president Vladimir Putin’s emphasis on the importance of nuclear weapons, and post-Cold-War doctrinal writings that talk about using limited nuclear attacks as “demonstration and de-escalation” strikes, to deter or terminate a large-scale nuclear war. (Notably, one of very few all-new weapons deployed by Russia since the Cold War is the Iskander nuclear-capable tactical ballistic missile.)
Other nations pursing this use of nuclear weapons could include Iran and Pakistan, while Chinese writers have discussed using them for electromagnetic-pulse (EMP) attacks to disable an adversary’s electronics and communications.