The next 20 years likely will not pose Soviet Union-like threats, nor will they mirror the past 12 years of combat in dual prolonged wars against entrenched insurgencies, he said. Therefore, the two-war planning construct is outdated and insufficient to plan for the next 20 years, as the QDR is required to do.
“Not every service has to have the canonical two-war capability,” he said. “DoD needs to maintain that full spectrum of capabilities, not each and every service. That assumption alone could drive some changes in investments and free up resources for higher priority capabilities.”
“Every service should [not] focus its capabilities on the exact same contingencies,” he added. “There are some scenarios that the Air Force is better suited for and some that our ground forces and expeditionary forces are better suited for.”
The next force-planning framework should be complemented by a new set of strategic concepts for each of the military services that “describe how, when, and where each anticipates they will need to defend the nation against future threats,” Gunzinger wrote.
For example, a new strategic concept for the U.S. Army might shift its planning toward developing a mix of land-based offensive and defensive capabilities that could help create a more stable military posture in the Western Pacific and the Middle East.
The Navy should focus on explaining how it plans to maintain it’s offensive capabilities in a world where most potential adversaries can be counted on to have ballistic missiles that can keep carriers far at sea, Gunzinger said. That includes getting serious about adopting an unmanned carrier-based aerial vehicle and learning how to deter network disruptions from a technically advanced enemy, he said.
Together with the Navy, the Air Force could be the nation’s “swing force” to rapidly deploy between theaters to deter two simultaneous conflicts. The Air Force also should focus on long-range strike capabilities to reduce its reliance on costly and vulnerable overseas bases and airstrips, he said.
The Army, Gunzinger said, has an opportunity to explain how a future force will be more capable of imposing losses on enemies in an air-sea battle scenario that doesn’t initially include a large-scale ground assault, perhaps by investing in conventional intermediate range ballistic missiles, he said.
The QDR will give Marine Corps officials an opportunity to enshrine the role they have been clamoring for — to move away from acting as an auxiliary land army and return to being the country’s rapid crisis-response force,” Gunzinger said.
“The services do need new strategic concepts,” he said. “This QDR is an opportunity for the services to get together and jointly create new visions … that will map out how, when and where they will help defend the nation.”