Given these challenges, now is the time for the Pentagon to make smart choices that will preserve the US’ ability to project military power abroad. Identifying DoD’s new “crown jewel” capabilities that should be shielded from budget cuts or even receive additional resources would be a start.
These include cyber and electronic warfare systems to disrupt enemy forces; undersea warfare platforms that are more survivable and versatile than surface combatants; stealthy, long-range surveillance and strike aircraft to penetrate contested airspace; special operations forces to conduct missions in sensitive areas; directed-energy weapons to provide cost-effective defenses against air and missile attacks; and a modernized nuclear force, which remains the ultimate deterrent for the US and its allies.
The hard truth, then, is that the Pentagon may need to make larger-than-anticipated cuts in some areas to invest in future capabilities. For example, armored forces that were designed to fight tank armies that no longer exist, surface warships to defeat a Soviet blue-water threat and aging fighter jets may have to be reduced. In fact, cutting $500 billion over the next decade while making room for investments in crown jewel capabilities may require sharp cuts in military and civilian personnel and even near-term readiness.
During a recent multi-think tank exercise organized by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, players found that the only way to cut $500 billion from DoD’s budget and simultaneously rebalance the military for future challenges was to cut funding in all of these areas.
In the end, the Pentagon is likely facing a stark choice between preserving near-term readiness and modernizing for the future. The wrong choice will leave America with a military that is prepared for fading threats. The right choice requires accepting risk now, developing a force that will be more ready in the future and avoiding another cycle of grief down the road.