CSBA’s report on the Transformation of Strategic-Strike Operations, first released in March of last year, recommended that the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) consider the merits of a new type of strategic triad. This new triad was composed of long-range precision-strike forces, electronic-strike capabilities, and a smaller, but modernized nuclear force comprising between 1,500-3,000 highly survivable warheads. The findings of the NPR released this week track closely with CSBA’s recommendation.¹ According to CSBA authors, Andrew Krepinevich and Robert Martinage, “The administration’s plan to reduce significantly our reliance on nuclear weapons by initiating a transformation of our strategic strike force represents a positive step toward preparing our military to meet the challenges of a new era.”

Co-chaired by the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, the congressionally mandated NPR provides a roadmap for how U.S. nuclear forces will be sized and shaped over the next 5-10 years. Building upon the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and responding to important changes in the security environment since the last review was completed in 1994, the 2002 NPR made many ground-breaking decisions, including:

Reducing the number of operationally deployed U.S. nuclear warheads from over 6,000 to approximately 3,800 by Fiscal Year (FY) 2007 and to 1,700-2,000 by FY 2012; and

Establishing a “New Triad” comprising nuclear and non-nuclear strategic strike capabilities, active and passive missile defenses, and a responsive defense infrastructure for developing, building, and maintaining offensive forces and defensive systems.

The explicit incorporation of non-nuclear strike capabilities into U.S. strategic forces marks an important shift in U.S. policy. As Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld commented, “The addition of non-nuclear strike forces – including conventional strike and information operations – means that the U.S. will be less dependent than it has been in the past on nuclear forces to provide its offensive deterrent capability.”

Click here for the executive summary, or contact CSBA to purchase a copy of the monograph.

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1. A briefing on the “Findings of the Nuclear Posture Review” and a transcript from the DoD/DoE special briefing on the NPR held on January 9, 2002 is available at [http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan2002/t01092002_t0109npr.html].