With the approaching election and the simultaneous preparations underway for the next Quadrennial Defense Review, yesterday the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments convened a seminar, “Beyond the Two-War Posture: Meeting the Anti-Access Challenge,” on Capitol Hill. The well-attended event brought together a broad audience comprising congressional staff, military officers, DoD representatives, as well as members of industry, the press, and the think tank community.

In presenting an overview of the issue, CSBA’s Executive Director, Dr. Andrew Krepinevich, noted that traditional power-projection operations, which form the core of the United States’ current Two Major Theater War (MTW) defense posture, rely heavily on access to forward bases. However, he stated that “As many Third World states acquire more destructive, extended-range weaponry, the conduct of forcible-entry operations will likely change more dramatically, with forward bases and embarkation points becoming increasingly vulnerable targets.” This will likely require significant changes in the US military’s approach to power projection, to include doctrine, force structure and weapon systems mix.

The first of two panels comprised Mr. Andy Hoehn (Dep. Asst. Secretary of Defense for Strategy), Brig. Gen. David Deptula (Director, AF QDR), Brig. Gen. Lynn Hartsell (Director, Army QDR Office), Maj. Gen. Robert Magnus (Asst. Dep. Commandant for Plans, Policies & Operations, USMC), and Rear Adm. Joseph Sestak, Jr. (Director, Strategy and Policy Division, Navy). The second panel was composed of defense advisors to the two presidential campaigns: Ambassador Richard Armitage for Governor Bush and Dr. Barry Blechman for Vice President Gore.

The presentations led to thought-provoking discussions on the issue of theater access denial. To highlight just a few points, Mr. Hoehn suggested that anti-access problems will require addressing political, as well as military, challenges with respect to our allies. He also pointed out that US forces will have to begin operating jointly before they reach their theater of operations, and not after they arrive in theater, as is currently the case.

The presidential campaign advisors emphasized different approaches to meeting this emerging threat. Dr. Blechman argued that forward engagement and early involvement in small-scale contingencies could help prevent the problem of access denial from occurring in the first place. Amb. Armitage suggested the US military begin to experiment seriously and vigorously to identify the systems, forces and concepts of operations that will be needed to meet the challenge.

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