CSBA released today a report with important implications for fighting future wars overseas. The Anti-Access Threat and Theater Air Bases, by Dr. Christopher Bowie, examines US ability to deploy aircraft to a combat theater, with particular focus on potential future operations in Asia.

Focusing on theater bases for land-based aircraft, Dr. Bowie suggests that, over the long run, the increasing difficulties raised by political factors, base infrastructure, and emerging military threats could significantly constrain US power-projection operations overseas.

During Operation Enduring Freedom (October to December 2001,) a lack of developed infrastructure limited land-based fighter aircraft involvement in the fight. Air Force fighters delivered only 10 percent of the munitions used while heavy bombers provided approximately 70 percent and carrier-based aircraft dropped the other 20 percent.

Political access issues are also a significant problem. Although the United States has powerful tools to help gain support, allies can withhold access or hold it hostage to influence US action, such as Italy did in 1999 during combat against Serbia. Similar problems are currently affecting the US buildup in the Persian Gulf.

While DoD modernization plans focus intently on procuring short-range tactical aircraft, emerging threats could increase the vulnerability of theater air bases supporting close fighter operations and limit their efficacy. Current plans for 2000-2030 estimate for every $30 spent on fighter aircraft, only $1 is invested in long-range combat systems less reliant on forward bases, a massive shift from the $2 to $1 ratio of 1970 to 2000.

Dr. Bowie concludes, “The political problems, logistical issues, and military threats posed to forward air bases individually raise challenges, but the uncertainties and risks of all the factors together in future conflicts should encourage DoD to re-evaluate current plans.”

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The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) is an independent policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking about defense planning and investment strategies for the 21^st Century. The report can be downloaded in its entirety at http://www.csbaonline.org.