The Department of Defense (DoD) in its 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) concluded that the “anti-access” threat—the complex mix of political, geographic, and military factors that could prevent or delay US forces from deploying to a combat theater—is the dominant strategic challenge confronting future US power-projection operations in regions of potential conflict, particularly in Asia.
To analyze the seriousness of this challenge, this paper focuses on one key aspect—the potential vulnerability of theater bases for land-based fighter aircraft. American combat air power, provided primarily by the United States Air Force (USAF), plays a critical and growing role in US power-projection operations. Over the next two to three decades, Defense Department combat aircraft plans are focused on modernizing the fighter force. Should emerging anti-access threats undermine theater fighter base viability, future US military operations could be jeopardized.
To conduct this analysis, this report addresses four key related issues:
- What are the basing and logistical requirements for land-based fighters in future combat operations?
- To what extent do these kinds of bases (and supporting logistics) exist?
- How vulnerable are these bases to political access problems and to emerging military threats?
- What potential counters are available to minimize these threats?
This report suggests that over the long run, the combined uncertainties raised by political factors, logistics, and emerging military threats mean that the combat power of the land-based fighter force may be significantly constrained in supporting US power-projection operations in an anti-access environment. To hedge, the Defense Department should adjust its current combat aircraft modernization plans, which focus primarily on the acquisition of fighter aircraft, to increase spending on
systems less reliant upon forward bases.
The issues raised in this analysis have broader strategic implications for the US military as a whole.
Reliance on large, fixed facilities in the theater of operations is much more than an Air Force issue.
Given the growing role of air power forces in US military operations, constrained USAF fighter operations would increase the vulnerability of joint forces to military threats and decrease overall force effectiveness. Army, Navy, and Marine forces are dependent upon forward ports, airfields, and bases in the theater to conduct combat operations. Many of these forces must engage adversaries at much shorter distances than land-based fighters, thus exposing them to even greater risk from anti-access threats. The susceptibility of these force elements to emerging anti-access threats may differ from land-based fighters due to force characteristics, logistical requirements, and basing modes, but should be analyzed in similar detail to guide decision-making on future force posture and force modernization priorities.