Military Threats to Theater Bases
Deep-Strike Systems
Many potential adversaries are increasing their emphasis on the procurement of ballistic and cruise missiles. Government intelligence forecasts anticipate adversaries possessing larger numbers of longer-range ballistic and cruise missiles. The proliferation of satellite navigation systems, sub-munition warheads, and re-entry vehicle guidance systems has the potential to increase dramatically
ballistic missile accuracy and lethality. Long-range, land-attack cruise missiles, which offer even higher accuracy than ballistic missiles, continue to proliferate. In addition, the new generations of ballistic and cruise missiles entering service can be fired from mobile launchers, which are much more difficult to locate and attack than fixed launch sites.
Multiple nations are placing commercial reconnaissance satellites into orbit that could provide adversaries with precision information to target their growing deep-strike arsenals. Commercially-based imagery can pinpoint the forward deployment and disposition of American and allied military forces in the region to facilitate the timing and effectiveness of enemy strikes. Attempts to control access to satellite imagery will prove increasingly difficult as the number of imagery
sources grows. Hardened military air bases are resilient entities. Historical evidence illustrates that large numbers of precision weapons would be needed to knock a hardened military air base out of commission for a substantial time period. The same does not hold true for less protected military and commercial airfields.
At unhardened airfields, aircraft parked on ramps, fuel stocks, and munitions would be vulnerable to the new threats. Capabilities to restore runways, electrical power, and fuel supplies would be less resilient than at hardened military airfields.
Toward the end of the Cold War, the USAF found it could not afford to ensure the survivability of its air bases in Europe. The sheer mass of anticipated Soviet attacks had the potential to overwhelm available passive and active defenses. The future ballistic and cruise missile threat has different characteristics: less mass but much greater precision. These weapons are less threatening to hardened facilities and runways than traditional strike aircraft, but potentially more devastating against
aircraft parked in the open, fuel facilities, and munitions storage areas.
Special Forces Attacks
Since 1942, special forces worldwide have conducted 645 separate attacks on airfields to destroy over 2,000 aircraft on the ground. Special forces pose a growing potential threat because of the proliferation of more accurate stand-off weapons, which increases the perimeter US forces must defend. The most worrisome threats include precision munitions for mortars (which would enable attackers to hit high value targets with a small number of rounds); long-range, large caliber sniper rifles (which could be used against high-value aircraft to knock out key components); and anti-tank rockets (which could be used to penetrate aircraft and personnel shelters).