China’s Recent Behavior
In 2010, China intensified its claims in the South China Sea. Beijing’s provocations and official statements over the past year have triggered widespread concerns not only about the South China Sea, but about China’s overall strategic direction, and called into question its self-proclaimed “peaceful rise.” China is expanding its efforts to establish a maritime sphere of influence in the South China Sea. Evidence of this is found in Beijing’s imposition of a unilateral fishing ban in April 2010 that encroached upon Vietnam’s territorial waters, and announcement of plans to expand its fleet of ships for maritime law enforcement. There has also been a spike in Chinese seizure, harassment, and detention of Vietnamese fishing boats.[3] China has developed a naval doctrine of “Far Sea Defense” (yuanyang fangyu) for the projection of power far from its shores.[4] Ominously, China last year declared almost the entire South China Sea to be a “core interest” (hexinliyi) – on par with Taiwan and Tibet – and an area over which it would exercise “indisputable sovereignty.”[5] Such statements fly in the face of the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. Perhaps no action made manifest China’s expansionist aims more clearly than the planting of its flag on the South China Sea seabed last August, demonstrating the extent of its territorial ambitions.
Reinforcing these claims, the PLA Navy has conducted several concerning naval exercises over the past year focused on South China Sea warfighting scenarios. These include the Jiaolong amphibious assault exercise in November 2010, which showcased the PLA’s growing ability to seize islands and project military power far beyond its shores.[6] Japanese press reports indicate that in early 2009 the PLA developed plans to seize islands in the South China Sea by force, using aerial bombardments followed by amphibious landings.[7]
When coupled with the PLA’s continuing force modernization, the cumulative effect of these statements and actions has been a heightening of concerns among the small peninsular and island states around the South China Sea.