The military revolution now under way promises to change conventional warfare on a scale not seen since the period between the two world wars. Such transformations of war typically displace, or even render obsolete, some formerly dominant weapons and forces central to the previous military regime. For example, US power-projection operations will become more difficult to execute as even second-rank military powers develop and deploy anti-access/area-denial capabilities, putting fixed, forward bases (and perhaps maritime forces in the littoral) at high risk for destruction. Meeting this challenge will require the United States to transform both its power-projection forces and its global basing structure. Furthermore, along with reorienting its primary focus from Central Europe to East Asia, the American military also will likely find itself confronting new forms of blockade, the challenge of maintaining US superiority in space, the growing incidence of urban conflict, and the use of information warfare, both as a means of gaining advantage on the battlefield and threatening a nation’s economic infrastructure. To this must be added the need to cope with this military revolution’s empowerment of small groups, to include irregular forces, terrorist groups and transnational criminal organizations, with weapons of mass destruction and disruption.
The QDR: A Flawed Blueprint
Unfortunately, the United States’ current defense program, as developed by the Defense Department’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), does not provide the kind of strategic blueprint needed to meet these emerging threats. While the need to transform the US military has been voiced by the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), thus far little has been accomplished toward this end. To paraphrase an old admonition, “Transformation” is something that is heard, but not seen.
Yet, if the US military is not transformed, it may lack the military capabilities needed to sustain a long peace. At the same time, the US military must remain capable of preserving stability all along its transformation path. This means America must maintain sufficient military capability in the form of forces that are ready to address today’s security requirements at an acceptable level of risk.
Some risk must be accepted. America’s wealth, great as it is, is not unlimited. Moreover, while both political parties have essentially stated their willingness to sustain defense budgets at their current level, neither has called for providing any significant increases. Even more sobering, the current defense program suffers from a plans-funding mismatch of some $120 billion over the next six years (using the February 2000 Clinton defense plan as the baseline), with even greater shortfalls thereafter. Furthermore, neither political party appears ready to add the resources required to erase this shortfall. Consequently, the current defense program cannot avoid substantial trimming, even if transformation is not undertaken.