Homeland Defense
While deploying an effective national missile defense system in the near term would be highly desirable, it is not a currently available option. Funding should not be siphoned away from national missile defense (NMD) research and development efforts, and into the procurement and maintenance of a system of suspect effectiveness. Rather, promising NMD options should be vigorously pursued with an eye toward exploiting cutting-edge technologies in an effort to develop more effective systems. Any eventual decision to deploy an NMD must account for the potential reaction of other nuclear powers, especially China and Russia.
An NMD deployment decision should be made within the context of a comprehensive approach to homeland defense from a weapons of mass destruction (WMD) attack to include defense against cruise missile attack and covert use of biological and radiological weapons. Increased emphasis must also be given to bolstering the nation’s defenses against attacks on the information infrastructure. To gain a better understanding of missile defense operations and force structure requirements, theater missile defenses—whose performance standards are significantly lower than those for an NMD system—should be deployed as soon as they become feasible.
The Nuclear Forces
The declining capabilities of the Russian nuclear forces, the associated reduced targeting requirements for US nuclear forces, and the growing potential of precision and electronic weapons to cover certain strategic targets once reserved for nuclear strikes suggest that significant funding could be shifted to support transformation initiatives by reducing our reliance on nuclear forces. Accordingly, the United States should take steps to pare its nuclear force levels to 2,500 warheads.
Alliances and Basing
If the United States is to preserve stability in key regions around the globe so as to sustain a long peace, it will find itself increasingly dependent upon allies for support. However, the emerging changes in the geopolitical and military-technical environments will lead America to seek different qualities in its relationships with its allies. A new division of labor will have to be arrived at that takes into account: ally durability and reliability; the new missions brought on by the military revolution (e.g., precision strike, space control, strategic information warfare, ballistic and cruise missile defense, power projection in the absence of fixed forward bases); and the likely shift in America’s principal security focus from Europe to Asia. To this end the United States should accord high priority to:
* exploring the potential to reduce emphasis on transferring advanced military capabilities to allies in lieu of providing such support on a temporary, or loan, basis. Candidate capabilities would include the US global C4ISR, missile defense and high-fidelity training architectures, as well as advanced precision-strike munitions (PGMs).
* supporting the efforts of selected allies to develop advanced military capabilities. For example, assistance might be provided to enable Australia, Israel, Japan, NATO Europe, and the Republic of Korea to develop their own anti-access forces, to include missile defense capabilities. Great Britain might be supported in its efforts to create power-projection forces that can operate effectively against anti-access forces and, along with Australia and Japan, to create forces to frustrate multi-dimensional (i.e., land-, space- and sea-based) blockades and threats to maritime commerce.
* migrating toward a new global basing architecture as a means of: hedging against the likelihood that future alliance relationships will be less predictable than they have been over the past 50 years; countering the growing risks involved with traditional reliance on fixed, forward facilities; and recognizing that Asia, rather than Europe, will more likely be the region where US security interests are at greatest risk.
Restructuring alliance relationships to meet these requirements will take years, perhaps a decade or more, to accomplish. Yet the geopolitical and military revolutions that will likely stress US alliance relationships and key regional military balances are already well under way. Hence it is no exaggeration to say that a strategic assessment of America’s alliance relationships should be undertaken now, while the opportunity to shape the future is at its greatest.